Which AI doom indexes can you compare? · Which AI indexes does SIREN contrast?
SIREN vs Takeoff Tracker: which should you use?
SIREN does not publish an AGI timeline, a takeoff dashboard, or anyone’s p(doom). It publishes one hourly recomputable activity score from public feeds.
AI activity index today · SIREN → · state.json → · Scale runs 5 (quietest) to 1 (loudest). Tempo, not danger.
What is each one?
| Index | What it measures | Who sets it | Recomputable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| SIREN | How much is happening in AI (tempo across five pillars) | A published formula over public data, hourly | Yes — from the receipt and open code |
| DoomBench | A qualitative “doom index” from sourced evidence for and against an AI-takeover scenario | Their scoring rules over curated evidence items | No |
| Skynet Countdown | Estimated chance of AI control loss and an estimated AGI date, plus tagged news | Their risk and timeline model over breakthroughs and headlines | No |
| p(doom) clocks | One person’s (or a site’s) stated probability that AI ends badly, often as a clock | Whoever picks the number | No |
| PizzINT | A pizza-and-intel novelty index that borrows DEFCON and Doomsday Clock language in the title | Their site’s framing over pizza / intel metaphors — not a published AI-activity formula | No |
| Takeoff Tracker | A dashboard of AGI-adjacent signals — Metaculus-style timelines, AI stock moves, arena leaderboards, GPU power, datacentres, and collected p(doom) estimates | Their curated dashboard over public prediction markets, markets data and linked leaderboards | No |
What is Takeoff Tracker?
- Public claim: AGI metrics dashboard (timelines, stocks, leaderboards, p(doom) estimates).
- Measures: A dashboard of AGI-adjacent signals — Metaculus-style timelines, AI stock moves, arena leaderboards, GPU power, datacentres, and collected p(doom) estimates.
- Set by: Their curated dashboard over public prediction markets, markets data and linked leaderboards.
- Recomputable by a stranger: Not as a single activity reading: the page aggregates many third-party series, and we did not see one published formula that re-derives a SIREN-style tempo score from those inputs.
- Also ships: Blog posts and starter packs around takeoff vocabulary.
- Their site: www.takeofftracker.com/
What is SIREN?
- Measures: AI activity tempo across capability, compute & capital, attention, governance and markets.
- Set by: a published formula over public data, hourly.
- Recomputable: yes — receipt, open code, CORS JSON.
- Does not publish: takeover probability, AGI date, anyone’s p(doom), a military DEFCON level, or the Bulletin’s Doomsday Clock.
What questions do people actually ask?
SIREN vs Takeoff Tracker: which should you use?
Use Takeoff Tracker if you want a dashboard of agi-adjacent signals — metaculus-style timelines, ai stock moves, arena leaderboards, gpu power, datacentres, and collected p(doom) estimates. Use SIREN if you want an hourly AI activity tempo reading with open inputs and a receipt. They are not substitutes for the same claim.
Can I recompute Takeoff Tracker?
Not as a single activity reading: the page aggregates many third-party series, and we did not see one published formula that re-derives a SIREN-style tempo score from those inputs
Does SIREN publish the same number as Takeoff Tracker?
No. SIREN does not score agi metrics dashboard (timelines, stocks, leaderboards, p(doom) estimates). It scores observable activity across five pillars and says so on every page.
What is Takeoff Tracker?
Takeoff Tracker: AGI metrics dashboard (timelines, stocks, leaderboards, p(doom) estimates). Measures A dashboard of AGI-adjacent signals — Metaculus-style timelines, AI stock moves, arena leaderboards, GPU power, datacentres, and collected p(doom) estimates. Set by Their curated dashboard over public prediction markets, markets data and linked leaderboards.
What is SIREN?
SIREN measures AI activity tempo across capability, compute & capital, attention, governance and markets with a published formula over public data, hourly.
Where should you go next?
AI activity index today · SIREN → · How the SIREN AI activity index is computed · methodology · Which AI doom indexes can you compare? · Which AI indexes does SIREN contrast? · What are AI doom index alternatives? · What is p(doom)? → · How the SIREN AI activity index is computed · methodology →