UTC05:21ZNowSIREN 456.6/100Delta+0.5upsince 03:34ZObservedSources15/15reportingStatusOPERATIONAL

The instrument room · everything behind the reading

What instruments sit behind the SIREN reading?

The home page gives the reading. This page shows the working: where the score sits, how it has moved, which sources reported, what each pillar is doing, and how to take the number with you.

How does SIREN count AI harm and benefit side by side?Both at once

Newsroom stories in benefit language and in harm language, drawn as a balance24 stories matched the harm list only and 5 the benefit list only. The harm pan hangs lower. 0 matched both lists and sit at the fulcrum. 471 matched neither list.0 on both lists5benefit language24harm language471 on neither list · 500 stories scanned
Tilts only on stories in one list and not the other: 8° × |H − B| ÷ (H + B), heavier pan down, at most 8°. Level within 2, or under 5 matched.

24 of 500 stories in the newsroom's current window matched the harm list and 5 matched the benefit list, as of 05:24 UTC on Thu 15 Oct 2026. A count of words, not of outcomes.

Strongest evidence first on each side. A status word describes the evidence, not the importance.

How does SIREN count AI harm and benefit side by side? → 18 benefit and 18 harm rows checked by hand as of 2026-09-28, 6 live counters. None of it is summed.

Where does the index sit?The oven

Observed position · the mark moves both ways · not a prediction

Five stages, coolest on the left, lit at the one the index is in as of . Hotter means more is happening — not that anything is worse. The stages are the SIREN levels themselves, not a second scale that could disagree with the first.

  1. DORMANT SIREN 5, DORMANT, band 0 to 34. cooler than the current stage
  2. 56.6NOW ROUTINE SIREN 4, ROUTINE, band 35 to 54. current stage. Composite 56.6 of 100.
  3. ELEVATED SIREN 3, ELEVATED, band 55 to 69. hotter than the current stage
  4. ACCELERATED SIREN 2, ACCELERATED, band 70 to 84. hotter than the current stage
  5. UNPRECEDENTED SIREN 1, UNPRECEDENTED, band 85 to 100. hotter than the current stage

Pin at 56.6 · dashed mark is the previous observation, 56.1 at 2026-10-15 03:34:40 UTC +0.5

This stage holds while the composite sits between 32.0 and 58.0 — the 35–54 band widened by the ±3-point deadband at each edge.

No stage change in the record. SIREN 4 has been the reading for 21d, since 2026-09-23 20:04:22 UTC, across 610 scored observations.

What would move it?

The published gates, as numbers. Each row is a requirement beside the current reading; nothing here says any of them is met. Heating is measured over 3h and 30m; standing down over 12h and 3h — cooling is deliberately the slower move, so a stage this index raises is one it keeps for a while.

What would move one stage hotter? SIREN 3 · ELEVATED

Composite
above 58.0 now 56.6 · 1.4 below that mark — not met
3h mean
above 58.0 56.4 over 2 observations — not met
30m mean
above 58.0 56.6 over 1 observation — not met
Pillars agreeing
2 of 4 scored 1 above 58.0 · 1 of 5 not scored — not met
Since last change
6h minimum held 21d — met
Dark pillars
none 0 of 5 dark — met

What would move one stage cooler? SIREN 5 · DORMANT

Composite
below 32.0 now 56.6 · 24.6 above that mark — not met
12h mean
below 32.0 54.7 over 7 observations — not met
3h mean
below 32.0 56.4 over 2 observations — not met
Pillars agreeing
2 of 4 scored 0 below 32.0 · 1 of 5 not scored — not met
Since last change
6h minimum held 21d — met
Dark pillars
none 0 of 5 dark — met

Last run the score crossed a band edge but not the deadband around it. rule_fired: deadband

Activity tempo, not probability of harm. Thresholds read from receipt 2026-10-15T05-21-57Z. How the SIREN AI activity index is computed · methodology →

Where does the score sit over time?The record

610 scored observations. The y axis is fixed at 0–100 and never auto-scaled to the data, so the question this chart answers stays "where in the range", not "what shape is the noise".

SIREN composite score over the last 610 observations610 observations from 2026-09-23 to 2026-10-15. Range 36.8 to 60.7 of 100. Latest 56.6, in the ELEVATED band (55–69). Background bands, bottom to top, are DORMANT 0 to 34, ROUTINE 35 to 54, ELEVATED 55 to 69, ACCELERATED 70 to 84, UNPRECEDENTED 85 to 100.DORMANTROUTINE▸ ELEVATEDACCELERATEDUNPRECEDENTED03555708510056.609-2310-15SIREN composite score over the last 610 observations610 observations from 2026-09-23 to 2026-10-15. Range 36.8 to 60.7 of 100. Latest 56.6, in the ELEVATED band (55–69). Background bands, bottom to top, are DORMANT 0 to 34, ROUTINE 35 to 54, ELEVATED 55 to 69, ACCELERATED 70 to 84, UNPRECEDENTED 85 to 100.DORMANT 0–34ROUTINE 35–54▸ ELEVATED 55–69 · NOWACCELERATED 70–84UNPRECEDENTED 85–10003555708510056.609-23 20:04Z10-04 19:23Z10-10 04:23Z10-15 05:21Z
610 observations · 2026-09-23 to 2026-10-15 · range 36.8–60.7 · now 56.6 in ELEVATED 55–69

Every point on this line is written to a hash-chained receipt carrying its full inputs. What is the history of AI risk? →

Where today sits inside the frozen reference distribution, and why that curve is never updated live, is drawn and explained on the How the SIREN AI activity index is computed · methodology →

What does source health on this page report?

4 live, 1 stale, 10 awaiting a baseline, of 15 sources. A source awaiting a baseline answered fine; there is simply no frozen reference to score it against yet, so it is published and not counted.

  1. arxiv: live
  2. federal-register: live
  3. hn: live
  4. sec-fts: live
  5. wikipedia: stale
  6. github-releases: awaiting a baseline
  7. govuk: awaiting a baseline
  8. huggingface: awaiting a baseline
  9. intelligence-arena: awaiting a baseline
  10. kalshi: awaiting a baseline
  11. manifold: awaiting a baseline
  12. openrouter: awaiting a baseline
  13. polymarket: awaiting a baseline
  14. stockanalysis: awaiting a baseline
  15. vastai: awaiting a baseline
  • 4 live
  • 1 stale
  • 10 awaiting a baseline
All 15 sources, one row each
  • arxiv0slive
  • github-releasesno baseline · no readno baseline
  • huggingfaceno baseline · no readno baseline
  • openrouterno baseline · no readno baseline
  • sec-fts0slive
  • stockanalysisno baseline · no readno baseline
  • vastaino baseline · no readno baseline
  • hn0slive
  • intelligence-arenano baseline · no readno baseline
  • wikipediastale · 5hstale
  • federal-register0slive
  • govukno baseline · no readno baseline
  • kalshino baseline · no readno baseline
  • manifoldno baseline · no readno baseline
  • polymarketno baseline · no readno baseline

5 live1 stale10 awaiting baselineSources awaiting a baseline answered fine and are published, but there is no frozen reference to score them against yet.

What are the five pillars on this page?

Which part of the field is loudest today. Each bar is linear in score from 0 to 100, so the ordering is the comparison; the cards underneath carry each pillar's own history.

The five pillars, ranked by scoreRanked loudest to quietest: Capability 66.4, Governance 54.3, Compute & Capital 46.1, Attention 43.0. Not scored: Markets (awaiting baseline). Each bar is linear in score from 0 to 100; the vertical line marks 50, the median of the frozen reference distribution.50 · MEDIAN▲Capability66.4◆Governance54.3■Compute46.1●Attention43.0✱MarketsAWAITING BASELINE—The five pillars, ranked by scoreRanked loudest to quietest: Capability 66.4, Governance 54.3, Compute & Capital 46.1, Attention 43.0. Not scored: Markets (awaiting baseline). Each bar is linear in score from 0 to 100; the vertical line marks 50, the median of the frozen reference distribution.50 · reference median▲Capability66.4◆Governance54.3■Compute & Capital46.1●Attention43.0✱MarketsAWAITING BASELINE · collected, not scored—
Capability leads at 66.4. Markets is awaiting a baseline.

What does the Capability pillar count?

66.4 +0.5up

What shipped, and what got written down.

Capability score history43 observations, up from 42.1 to 66.4 of 100. Range 30.4 to 69.4.50

1/4 SCORED · 3 AWAITING BASELINE · 94TH PCTL

What does the Compute & Capital pillar count?

46.1 −0.0unchanged

Silicon, spend, and the market’s opinion of both.

Compute & Capital score history48 observations, up from 44.3 to 46.1 of 100. Range 44.3 to 46.1.

1/3 SCORED · 2 AWAITING BASELINE · 37TH PCTL

What does the Attention pillar count?

43.0 +1.6up

How loudly the world is talking.

Attention score history48 observations, down from 50.1 to 43.0 of 100. Range 37.0 to 50.4.50

2/3 SCORED · 1 AWAITING BASELINE · 43TH PCTL

What does the Governance pillar count?

54.3 ±0.0unchanged

Paperwork with the force of law.

Governance score history48 observations, up from 53.7 to 54.3 of 100. Range 53.2 to 54.3.

1/2 SCORED · 1 AWAITING BASELINE · 64TH PCTL

What does the Markets pillar count?

—

Where money is posted against an opinion.

AWAITING BASELINE · 22 of 300 days

Where are the recent SIREN index moves?

Where are the SIREN index moves? →

How do I put the index on my site?

One iframe. No script, no tracking, no key. It renders light or dark to match the page it sits in, and the number inside it is server-rendered too.

<iframe src="https://siren.watch/embed.html" width="320" height="152" style="border:0;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="SIREN — AI activity tempo"></iframe>

Or a badge, for a README or anywhere an iframe is stripped. It shows the current level and links back here.

[![SIREN](https://siren.watch/badge.svg)](https://siren.watch/)

SIREN badge showing the current level

Add ?theme=light, ?theme=dark or ?compact=1 to pin the look. How do I export and embed SIREN data? →

What public JSON files does SIREN expose?

Static files. No key, no rate limit, CC BY 4.0. Attribution: siren.watch.

What questions do people actually ask?

What instruments sit behind the SIREN reading?

The home page gives the reading. This page shows the working: where the score sits, how it has moved, which sources reported, what each pillar is doing, and how to take the number with you.

How does SIREN count AI harm and benefit side by side?

Harm and benefit are counted side by side and never summed. Strongest evidence first on each side; a status word describes the evidence, not the importance.

Where does the index sit?

Five stages, coolest on the left, lit at the one the index is in. Hotter means more is happening — not that anything is worse. The stages are the SIREN levels themselves, not a second scale that could disagree with the first.

Where does the score sit over time?

This page charts every scored observation over time. The history of AI risk page and the methodology page explain the frozen reference curve that never updates live.

What does source health on this page report?

4 live, 1 stale, 10 awaiting a baseline, of 15 sources. A source awaiting a baseline answered fine; there is simply no frozen reference to score it against yet, so it is published and not counted.

What are the five pillars on this page?

Which part of the field is loudest today. Each bar is linear in score from 0 to 100, so the ordering is the comparison; the cards underneath carry each pillar's own history.

Where are the recent SIREN index moves?

Recent scored moves are listed on this page, with the full archive at Where are the SIREN index moves?

Where is the frozen reference distribution explained?

Where today sits inside the frozen reference distribution, and why that curve is never updated live, is drawn and explained on the methodology page.

How do I put the index on my site?

One iframe. No script, no tracking, no key. It renders light or dark to match the page it sits in, and the number inside it is server-rendered too.

What public JSON files does SIREN expose?

Static JSON under /api/: state, history, health and per-reading receipts. No key, no rate limit, CC BY 4.0. Attribution: siren.watch.

What does the Capability pillar count?

What shipped, and what got written down.

What does the Compute & Capital pillar count?

Silicon, spend, and the market’s opinion of both.

What does the Attention pillar count?

How loudly the world is talking.

What does the Governance pillar count?

Paperwork with the force of law.

What does the Markets pillar count?

Where money is posted against an opinion.

What would move one stage hotter?

The published heating gates, as numbers beside the current reading. Nothing here says any of them is met.

What would move one stage cooler?

The published cooling gates, as numbers beside the current reading. Cooling is deliberately the slower move.

Search-shaped sibling: How the SIREN AI activity index is computed · methodology.

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