Which AI doom indexes can you compare? · Which AI indexes does SIREN contrast?
SIREN vs IMD AI Safety Clock: which should you use?
SIREN publishes no minutes-to-midnight setting. It publishes an hourly AI activity score from open inputs that anyone can recompute.
AI activity index today · AI activity level today · SIREN → · state.json → · Scale runs 5 (quietest) to 1 (loudest). Tempo, not danger.
What is each one?
| Index | What it measures | Who sets it | Recomputable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| SIREN | How much is happening in AI (tempo across five pillars) | A published formula over public data, hourly | Yes — from the receipt and open code |
| DoomBench | A qualitative “doom index” from sourced evidence for and against an AI-takeover scenario | Their scoring rules over curated evidence items | No |
| Skynet Countdown | Estimated chance of AI control loss and an estimated AGI date, plus tagged news | Their risk and timeline model over breakthroughs and headlines | No |
| p(doom) clocks | One person’s (or a site’s) stated probability that AI ends badly, often as a clock | Whoever picks the number | No |
| PizzINT | A pizza-and-intel novelty index that borrows DEFCON and Doomsday Clock language in the title | Their site’s framing over pizza / intel metaphors — not a published AI-activity formula | No |
| Takeoff Tracker | A dashboard of AGI-adjacent signals — Metaculus-style timelines, AI stock moves, arena leaderboards, GPU power, datacentres, and collected p(doom) estimates | Their curated dashboard over public prediction markets, markets data and linked leaderboards | No |
| The AI Doomsday Clock (aidoomsday.live) | Where stated expert probabilities of AI catastrophe cluster, shown as a clock (it reads the 10–20% cluster) | The site, reading a spread of named researchers’ and lab leaders’ stated p(doom) | No |
| IMD AI Safety Clock | Risk from uncontrolled AGI across sophistication, autonomy and execution, set as minutes to midnight (it launched at 29 and has since moved to 15) | IMD researchers, combining a news-tracking dashboard with desk research and expert judgement | No |
| AI Fear & Trust Index | How much and how intensely people talk about existential risk for each model or lab, with a minutes-to-midnight display | A published formula over posts that their own language model classifies | No |
What is IMD AI Safety Clock?
- Public claim: A business school’s minutes-to-midnight clock for uncontrolled AGI.
- Measures: Risk from uncontrolled AGI across sophistication, autonomy and execution, set as minutes to midnight (it launched at 29 and has since moved to 15).
- Set by: IMD researchers, combining a news-tracking dashboard with desk research and expert judgement.
- Recomputable by a stranger: Not by a reader: IMD describes a proprietary dashboard plus qualitative expert assessment, and updates the setting periodically.
- Also ships: Whitepapers on six-month AI developments and a newsletter.
- Their site: www.imd.org/centers/digital-ai-transformation-center/aisafetyclock/
What is SIREN?
- Measures: AI activity tempo across capability, compute & capital, attention, governance and markets.
- Set by: a published formula over public data, hourly.
- Recomputable: yes — receipt, open code, CORS JSON.
- Does not publish: takeover probability, AGI date, anyone’s p(doom), a military DEFCON level, or the Bulletin’s Doomsday Clock.
What questions do people actually ask?
SIREN vs IMD AI Safety Clock: which should you use?
Use IMD AI Safety Clock if you want risk from uncontrolled agi across sophistication, autonomy and execution, set as minutes to midnight (it launched at 29 and has since moved to 15). Use SIREN if you want an hourly AI activity tempo reading with open inputs and a receipt. They are not substitutes for the same claim.
Can I recompute IMD AI Safety Clock?
Not by a reader: IMD describes a proprietary dashboard plus qualitative expert assessment, and updates the setting periodically
Does SIREN publish the same number as IMD AI Safety Clock?
No. SIREN does not score a business school’s minutes-to-midnight clock for uncontrolled agi. It scores observable activity across five pillars and says so on every page.
What is IMD AI Safety Clock?
IMD AI Safety Clock: A business school’s minutes-to-midnight clock for uncontrolled AGI. Measures Risk from uncontrolled AGI across sophistication, autonomy and execution, set as minutes to midnight (it launched at 29 and has since moved to 15). Set by IMD researchers, combining a news-tracking dashboard with desk research and expert judgement.
What is SIREN?
SIREN measures AI activity tempo across capability, compute & capital, attention, governance and markets with a published formula over public data, hourly.
Where should you go next?
AI activity index today · AI activity level today · SIREN → · How the SIREN AI activity index is computed · methodology · Which AI doom indexes can you compare? · Which AI indexes does SIREN contrast? · What are AI doom index alternatives? · Is there an AI doomsday clock? → · How the SIREN AI activity index is computed · methodology →