Explainer
Is there an AI doomsday clock?
The Doomsday Clock is not an AI clock, though it now takes AI into account. Several AI-specific “clocks” exist, and all of them are set by judgement. SIREN is the nearest thing that is counted instead: an hourly reading of AI activity that anyone can verify.
Set your own AI doomsday clock → Drag a dial, see where you sit among 28 named experts from LeCun (0.01%) to Yudkowsky (95%+), and post it.
What is the Bulletin’s Doomsday Clock?
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has published the Doomsday Clock since 1947. It is a symbol: a board of experts decides, usually once a year, how close to “midnight” to set it. It began as a warning about nuclear weapons and has since widened to include climate change and disruptive technologies, AI among them. It is a considered judgement, not a calculation, and it is not updated between announcements.
Where does expert opinion sit on an AI clock?
Ask the people building AI how likely it is to end in catastrophe and you get a cloud, not a number. The loudest cluster sits around 10–20% (Geoffrey Hinton; Elon Musk says 10–30%; Dario Amodei 10–25%). The largest survey of AI researchers gives a median of 5%. The tails run from Yann LeCun’s under 0.01% to Eliezer Yudkowsky’s over 95%. On a clock where 100% is midnight, 15% is about 51 minutes to go. See all 28 voices on one chart and set the clock to your own number →
What are AI-specific clocks and scores?
A number of sites publish an AI risk clock, countdown or score. What they share is the method: a person, a panel or a language model decides the setting. That makes them statements of opinion. Useful ones, sometimes, but not something a reader can recompute.
What does SIREN do instead of a doomsday clock?
- It counts. Releases, compute and capital, attention, governance and markets, from public sources, every hour.
- It reports tempo, not danger. The level runs from 5 (quietest) to 1 (loudest). Loud means a lot is happening; it does not mean things are going badly.
- It can be checked. Each reading has a receipt, and a free tool re-verifies the record in your browser.
- It moves when the world does. Hourly, not yearly.
Right now: SIREN 4, ROUTINE, composite 56.6 of 100, observed 2026-10-15 05:21:57 UTC. AI activity index today · SIREN →
Which clock should you use?
If you want an expert body’s considered view of overall risk, read the Bulletin’s statement. If you want to know how much is happening in AI this week, and to be able to check the answer, that is what this site is for. They answer different questions.
What questions do people actually ask?
Is there an AI doomsday clock?
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Doomsday Clock includes AI among its risks but is not AI-specific and is set once a year. AI-specific clocks are set by judgement. SIREN publishes an hourly, verifiable count of AI activity, and plots named experts’ p(doom) estimates on one chart.
What is the Bulletin’s Doomsday Clock?
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has published the Doomsday Clock since 1947. A board of experts decides, usually once a year, how close to “midnight” to set it. It is a considered judgement, not a calculation, and it is not updated between announcements.
Where does expert opinion sit on an AI clock?
Ask the people building AI how likely it is to end in catastrophe and you get a cloud, not a number. The loudest cluster sits around 10–20%. The largest survey of AI researchers gives a median of 5%. On a clock where 100% is midnight, 15% is about 51 minutes to go.
What are AI-specific clocks and scores?
A number of sites publish an AI risk clock, countdown or score. What they share is the method: a person, a panel or a language model decides the setting. That makes them statements of opinion, not something a reader can recompute.
What does SIREN do instead of a doomsday clock?
SIREN counts releases, compute and capital, attention, governance and markets from public sources every hour. It reports tempo, not danger; each reading has a receipt; and it moves hourly, not yearly.
Which clock should you use?
If you want an expert body’s considered view of overall risk, read the Bulletin’s statement. If you want to know how much is happening in AI this week, and to be able to check the answer, that is what SIREN is for.
How close is the AI doomsday clock to midnight?
There is no official AI clock. Expert estimates of AI catastrophe cluster around 10–20%; the largest researcher survey has a median of 5%. On a clock where 100% is midnight, 15% is about 51 minutes to go.
Who sets the AI doomsday clock?
Nobody officially. Sites that publish one set it by their own judgement. SIREN’s reading is computed hourly from public data and can be re-checked in the browser.
Is SIREN a doomsday clock or a doom probability?
No. SIREN measures activity tempo — how much is happening in AI this hour — not danger and not a probability of harm. The dial borrows countdown grammar only.
Search-shaped sibling: How does SIREN compare to DEFCON, the Doomsday Clock and p(doom)? · What is p(doom)? · How the SIREN AI activity index is computed · methodology.
How does SIREN compare to DEFCON, the Doomsday Clock and p(doom)? · What is p(doom)? · How the SIREN AI activity index is computed · methodology