Which AI doom indexes can you compare? · Which AI indexes does SIREN contrast?
SIREN vs The AI Doomsday Clock (aidoomsday.live): which should you use?
SIREN does not set a clock from opinions. It counts AI activity every hour from public data, and the SIREN p(doom) page plots the same named experts on one chart.
AI activity index today · AI activity level today · SIREN → · state.json → · Scale runs 5 (quietest) to 1 (loudest). Tempo, not danger.
What is each one?
| Index | What it measures | Who sets it | Recomputable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| SIREN | How much is happening in AI (tempo across five pillars) | A published formula over public data, hourly | Yes — from the receipt and open code |
| DoomBench | A qualitative “doom index” from sourced evidence for and against an AI-takeover scenario | Their scoring rules over curated evidence items | No |
| Skynet Countdown | Estimated chance of AI control loss and an estimated AGI date, plus tagged news | Their risk and timeline model over breakthroughs and headlines | No |
| p(doom) clocks | One person’s (or a site’s) stated probability that AI ends badly, often as a clock | Whoever picks the number | No |
| PizzINT | A pizza-and-intel novelty index that borrows DEFCON and Doomsday Clock language in the title | Their site’s framing over pizza / intel metaphors — not a published AI-activity formula | No |
| Takeoff Tracker | A dashboard of AGI-adjacent signals — Metaculus-style timelines, AI stock moves, arena leaderboards, GPU power, datacentres, and collected p(doom) estimates | Their curated dashboard over public prediction markets, markets data and linked leaderboards | No |
| The AI Doomsday Clock (aidoomsday.live) | Where stated expert probabilities of AI catastrophe cluster, shown as a clock (it reads the 10–20% cluster) | The site, reading a spread of named researchers’ and lab leaders’ stated p(doom) | No |
| IMD AI Safety Clock | Risk from uncontrolled AGI across sophistication, autonomy and execution, set as minutes to midnight (it launched at 29 and has since moved to 15) | IMD researchers, combining a news-tracking dashboard with desk research and expert judgement | No |
| AI Fear & Trust Index | How much and how intensely people talk about existential risk for each model or lab, with a minutes-to-midnight display | A published formula over posts that their own language model classifies | No |
What is The AI Doomsday Clock (aidoomsday.live)?
- Public claim: A single dial set from named experts’ p(doom) estimates.
- Measures: Where stated expert probabilities of AI catastrophe cluster, shown as a clock (it reads the 10–20% cluster).
- Set by: The site, reading a spread of named researchers’ and lab leaders’ stated p(doom).
- Recomputable by a stranger: No, and the site says so: it calls the setting a way to read a cloud of subjective probabilities, not a measurement.
- Also ships: A slider to set the clock to your own number and share it.
- Their site: aidoomsday.live/
What is SIREN?
- Measures: AI activity tempo across capability, compute & capital, attention, governance and markets.
- Set by: a published formula over public data, hourly.
- Recomputable: yes — receipt, open code, CORS JSON.
- Does not publish: takeover probability, AGI date, anyone’s p(doom), a military DEFCON level, or the Bulletin’s Doomsday Clock.
What questions do people actually ask?
SIREN vs The AI Doomsday Clock (aidoomsday.live): which should you use?
Use The AI Doomsday Clock (aidoomsday.live) if you want where stated expert probabilities of ai catastrophe cluster, shown as a clock (it reads the 10–20% cluster). Use SIREN if you want an hourly AI activity tempo reading with open inputs and a receipt. They are not substitutes for the same claim.
Can I recompute The AI Doomsday Clock (aidoomsday.live)?
No, and the site says so: it calls the setting a way to read a cloud of subjective probabilities, not a measurement
Does SIREN publish the same number as The AI Doomsday Clock (aidoomsday.live)?
No. SIREN does not score a single dial set from named experts’ p(doom) estimates. It scores observable activity across five pillars and says so on every page.
What is The AI Doomsday Clock (aidoomsday.live)?
The AI Doomsday Clock (aidoomsday.live): A single dial set from named experts’ p(doom) estimates. Measures Where stated expert probabilities of AI catastrophe cluster, shown as a clock (it reads the 10–20% cluster). Set by The site, reading a spread of named researchers’ and lab leaders’ stated p(doom).
What is SIREN?
SIREN measures AI activity tempo across capability, compute & capital, attention, governance and markets with a published formula over public data, hourly.
Where should you go next?
AI activity index today · AI activity level today · SIREN → · How the SIREN AI activity index is computed · methodology · Which AI doom indexes can you compare? · Which AI indexes does SIREN contrast? · What are AI doom index alternatives? · Is there an AI doomsday clock? → · What is p(doom)? →