Which AI doom indexes can you compare? · Which AI indexes does SIREN contrast?
SIREN vs Skynet Countdown: which should you use?
SIREN publishes no AGI date and no control-loss percentage. It publishes an hourly activity score you can recompute.
AI activity index today · SIREN → · state.json → · Scale runs 5 (quietest) to 1 (loudest). Tempo, not danger.
What is each one?
| Index | What it measures | Who sets it | Recomputable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| SIREN | How much is happening in AI (tempo across five pillars) | A published formula over public data, hourly | Yes — from the receipt and open code |
| DoomBench | A qualitative “doom index” from sourced evidence for and against an AI-takeover scenario | Their scoring rules over curated evidence items | No |
| Skynet Countdown | Estimated chance of AI control loss and an estimated AGI date, plus tagged news | Their risk and timeline model over breakthroughs and headlines | No |
| p(doom) clocks | One person’s (or a site’s) stated probability that AI ends badly, often as a clock | Whoever picks the number | No |
| PizzINT | A pizza-and-intel novelty index that borrows DEFCON and Doomsday Clock language in the title | Their site’s framing over pizza / intel metaphors — not a published AI-activity formula | No |
| Takeoff Tracker | A dashboard of AGI-adjacent signals — Metaculus-style timelines, AI stock moves, arena leaderboards, GPU power, datacentres, and collected p(doom) estimates | Their curated dashboard over public prediction markets, markets data and linked leaderboards | No |
What is Skynet Countdown?
- Public claim: AI risk predictor & AGI timeline tracker.
- Measures: Estimated chance of AI control loss and an estimated AGI date, plus tagged news.
- Set by: Their risk and timeline model over breakthroughs and headlines.
- Recomputable by a stranger: Not that we could find: the percentage and the date read as model outputs, and we did not see a published formula over open inputs.
- Also ships: Day hubs and tag pages for news.
- Their site: skynetcountdown.com/
What is SIREN?
- Measures: AI activity tempo across capability, compute & capital, attention, governance and markets.
- Set by: a published formula over public data, hourly.
- Recomputable: yes — receipt, open code, CORS JSON.
- Does not publish: takeover probability, AGI date, anyone’s p(doom), a military DEFCON level, or the Bulletin’s Doomsday Clock.
What questions do people actually ask?
SIREN vs Skynet Countdown: which should you use?
Use Skynet Countdown if you want estimated chance of ai control loss and an estimated agi date, plus tagged news. Use SIREN if you want an hourly AI activity tempo reading with open inputs and a receipt. They are not substitutes for the same claim.
Can I recompute Skynet Countdown?
Not that we could find: the percentage and the date read as model outputs, and we did not see a published formula over open inputs
Does SIREN publish the same number as Skynet Countdown?
No. SIREN does not score ai risk predictor & agi timeline tracker. It scores observable activity across five pillars and says so on every page.
What is Skynet Countdown?
Skynet Countdown: AI risk predictor & AGI timeline tracker. Measures Estimated chance of AI control loss and an estimated AGI date, plus tagged news. Set by Their risk and timeline model over breakthroughs and headlines.
What is SIREN?
SIREN measures AI activity tempo across capability, compute & capital, attention, governance and markets with a published formula over public data, hourly.
Where should you go next?
AI activity index today · SIREN → · How the SIREN AI activity index is computed · methodology · Which AI doom indexes can you compare? · Which AI indexes does SIREN contrast? · What are AI doom index alternatives?