THE NATIONS RACE · LIVE
USA vs China: who is winning the race to superintelligence?
The betting markets price which company will have the best AI model. Group those companies by home country and you get the national race, updated every hour. Add the electricity each country can generate and you have the physical side too. Each measure gives one point to whichever of the two leads it.
What are the odds the best AI model is theirs by Dec 2026?
What are the odds the best AI model is theirs by Oct 31?
What is each country’s best single-lab chance of a top-ranked model this year?
Which frontier labs are the markets pricing by country?
How much electricity did each country generate in 2025 (TWh)?
How many data centres does OpenStreetMap map by country?
OpenStreetMap is thinly mapped in China, so this badly undercounts Chinese sites. Shown for context, not scored.
How does this scoreboard work?
- Odds by country: each market's live prices for individual companies (Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, Moonshot and others) are added up by the company's home country and scaled so the live legs total 100%.
- Kalshi: its companies are not mutually exclusive, so the measure shows each country's best single lab.
- Labs priced: how many of each country's companies the market lists at all.
- Electricity: annual generation from the open Our World in Data dataset; training and running AI is limited by power.
- Data centres: sites mapped by OpenStreetMap volunteers. Mapping in China is sparse, so this is shown but not scored.
Related: Who is winning the AI race? · Who makes the most electricity (China vs US)? · How many datacentres has SIREN mapped on Earth? · What AI charts does SIREN publish?
Market prices are what traders pay, not SIREN's view, and can move fast. Not financial advice; prediction markets are restricted in some places. Company names belong to their owners. JSON
What questions do people actually ask?
USA vs China: who is winning the race to superintelligence?
The betting markets price which company will have the best AI model. Group those companies by home country and you get the national race, updated every hour. Add the electricity each country can generate and you have the physical side too. Each measure gives one point to whichever of the two leads it.
How does this scoreboard work?
Odds by country add each market's live prices for individual companies by home country and scale so the live legs total 100%. Electricity is annual generation from Our World in Data. Data centres mapped in OpenStreetMap are shown but not scored when mapping is sparse.
Are the odds SIREN’s forecast of who wins?
Odds are market prices for which country's labs hold the best model, not forecasts by SIREN. Market prices are what traders pay, not SIREN's view, and can move fast. Not financial advice; prediction markets are restricted in some places.
How does the scoreboard award points?
Each measure gives one point to whichever of the two leads it. Odds by country add each market's live prices for individual companies by home country and scale so the live legs total 100%. Electricity is annual generation from Our World in Data. Data centres mapped in OpenStreetMap are shown but not scored when mapping is sparse.
How is this different from the lab race page?
Related: the lab race ranks companies on live prediction-market odds; this page groups those companies by home country and adds electricity and mapped data centres.
What are the odds the best AI model is theirs by Dec 2026?
Odds by country add each market’s live prices for individual companies by home country and scale so the live legs total 100%.
What are the odds the best AI model is theirs by Oct 31?
Odds by country add each market’s live prices for individual companies by home country and scale so the live legs total 100%.
What is each country’s best single-lab chance of a top-ranked model this year?
Kalshi’s companies are not mutually exclusive, so the measure shows each country’s best single lab.
Which frontier labs are the markets pricing by country?
How many of each country’s companies the market lists at all.
How much electricity did each country generate in 2025 (TWh)?
Electricity is annual generation from Our World in Data. Training and running AI is limited by power.
How many data centres does OpenStreetMap map by country?
OpenStreetMap is thinly mapped in China, so this badly undercounts Chinese sites. Shown for context, not scored.
Search-shaped sibling: Who is winning the AI race? · Who makes the most electricity (China vs US)?.