Where are the SIREN index moves? · 2026-10-16
SIREN 4 holds at 56.7
AI activity index today · SIREN
Observed . The composite fell 0.2 points to 56.7 of 100. Capability was the highest-scoring live pillar at 67.9. The level did not change: the deadband rule held it.
deadband1.0.0Which pillars scored at this observation?
| Pillar | Score | Live sources |
|---|---|---|
| Capability | 67.9 | 1 / 4 |
| Compute & Capital | 45.6 | 1 / 3 |
| Attention | 39.0 | 2 / 3 |
| Governance | 55.0 | 1 / 2 |
| Markets | no baseline | 0 / 3 |
Which inputs did the engine see?
Every reading the engine saw, exactly as fetched. Dark sources are listed as dark and were excluded from the arithmetic; none of them was imputed or treated as zero.
- arxiv [capability] 2677 papers/7d
- github-releases [capability] dark · uncalibrated: "github-releases" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored
- huggingface [capability] dark · uncalibrated: "huggingface" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored
- openrouter [capability] dark · uncalibrated: "openrouter" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored
- sec-fts [compute] 2981 filings/30d
- stockanalysis [compute] dark · uncalibrated: "stockanalysis" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored
- vastai [compute] dark · uncalibrated: "vastai" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored
- hn [attention] 1187 points/24h
- intelligence-arena [attention] dark · uncalibrated: "intelligence-arena" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored
- wikipedia [attention] 85355.2857142857 pageviews/day
- federal-register [governance] 29 documents/30d
- govuk [governance] dark · uncalibrated: "govuk" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored
- kalshi [markets] dark · uncalibrated: "kalshi" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored
- manifold [markets] dark · uncalibrated: "manifold" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored
- polymarket [markets] dark · uncalibrated: "polymarket" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored
What is the receipt for this observation?
This observation is sealed into an append-only hash chain. The hash is the SHA-256 of this receipt’s canonical JSON with the hash field removed; prev_hash is the previous receipt’s hash. Change any input after the fact and every subsequent hash breaks.
2026-10-16T14-45-12ZWhat questions do people actually ask?
Which pillars scored at this observation?
The composite fell 0.2 points to 56.7 of 100. Capability was the highest-scoring live pillar at 67.9. The level did not change: the deadband rule held it.
Which inputs did the engine see?
Every reading the engine saw, exactly as fetched. Dark sources are listed as dark and were excluded from the arithmetic; none of them was imputed or treated as zero.
What is the receipt for this observation?
This observation is sealed into an append-only hash chain. The hash is the SHA-256 of this receipt’s canonical JSON with the hash field removed; prev_hash is the previous receipt’s hash. Change any input after the fact and every subsequent hash breaks.
Does this move mean a doom probability?
No. SIREN measures activity tempo. A move is a score change with a receipt — not a probability of harm.