Where are the SIREN index moves? · 2026-10-14
SIREN 4 holds at 56.1
AI activity index today · SIREN
Observed . The composite rose 0.0 points to 56.1 of 100. Capability was the highest-scoring live pillar at 67.6. Markets reported dark and was excluded; the level is frozen while any pillar is dark. The level did not change: the frozen dark pillar rule held it.
frozen_dark_pillar1.0.0Which pillars scored at this observation?
| Pillar | Score | Live sources |
|---|---|---|
| Capability | 67.6 | 1 / 4 |
| Compute & Capital | 45.9 | 1 / 3 |
| Attention | 37.7 | 2 / 3 |
| Governance | 53.6 | 1 / 2 |
| Markets | dark | 0 / 3 |
Which inputs did the engine see?
Every reading the engine saw, exactly as fetched. Dark sources are listed as dark and were excluded from the arithmetic; none of them was imputed or treated as zero.
- arxiv [capability] 2608 papers/7d
- github-releases [capability] dark · uncalibrated: "github-releases" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored
- huggingface [capability] dark · uncalibrated: "huggingface" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored
- openrouter [capability] dark · uncalibrated: "openrouter" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored
- sec-fts [compute] 3038 filings/30d
- stockanalysis [compute] dark · uncalibrated: "stockanalysis" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored
- vastai [compute] dark · uncalibrated: "vastai" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored
- hn [attention] 1056 points/24h
- intelligence-arena [attention] dark · uncalibrated: "intelligence-arena" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored
- wikipedia [attention] 83816.14285714287 pageviews/day
- federal-register [governance] 28 documents/30d
- govuk [governance] dark · uncalibrated: "govuk" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored
- kalshi [markets] dark · uncalibrated: "kalshi" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored
- manifold [markets] dark · HTTP 503 Service Unavailable from https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?term=OpenAI&filter=open&contractType=BINARY&sort=score&limit=50 — no healthy upstream
- polymarket [markets] dark · uncalibrated: "polymarket" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored
What is the receipt for this observation?
This observation is sealed into an append-only hash chain. The hash is the SHA-256 of this receipt’s canonical JSON with the hash field removed; prev_hash is the previous receipt’s hash. Change any input after the fact and every subsequent hash breaks.
2026-10-14T15-41-07ZWhat questions do people actually ask?
Which pillars scored at this observation?
The composite rose 0.0 points to 56.1 of 100. Capability was the highest-scoring live pillar at 67.6. Markets reported dark and was excluded; the level is frozen while any pillar is dark. The level did not change: the frozen dark pillar rule held it.
Which inputs did the engine see?
Every reading the engine saw, exactly as fetched. Dark sources are listed as dark and were excluded from the arithmetic; none of them was imputed or treated as zero.
What is the receipt for this observation?
This observation is sealed into an append-only hash chain. The hash is the SHA-256 of this receipt’s canonical JSON with the hash field removed; prev_hash is the previous receipt’s hash. Change any input after the fact and every subsequent hash breaks.
Does this move mean a doom probability?
No. SIREN measures activity tempo. A move is a score change with a receipt — not a probability of harm.