PREDICTION MARKETS · NOT A SIREN FORECAST
Where are live AI prediction market odds?
SIREN reprints money-backed prices from Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold on AI questions. The index itself counts how loud AI activity is this hour. It does not publish a prediction.
What does this page answer?
People type “AI prediction markets” when they want live odds on labs and model releases. This page is the crawlable answer: where SIREN shows those prices, and the hard line that the prices are the market’s, not ours.
Where should readers go next?
- The Race — frontier labs ordered by live prediction-market probability.
- Markets pillar — scored stories under the markets filter, plus source posture.
- Nations — the same odds grouped by lab home country.
- Search Trends — when AI head terms spike on Google’s daily firehose.
FAQ
What are AI prediction markets?
Exchange-traded contracts on AI questions — which lab holds the best model, when a release ships, whether an event happens by a date. Prices are money-backed opinions, not lab press releases.
Does SIREN predict the future?
No. SIREN counts observable AI activity tempo. On The Race and the Markets pillar it reprints live prediction-market prices so you can see what traders are paying. Those prices are not a SIREN forecast.
Where are the live odds?
The Race ranks frontier labs by the live Polymarket probability for best AI model at year-end. The Markets pillar lists scored news under the markets filter. Each page says the number is a market price.
Why might a brand search for an AI prediction product return nothing?
Search needs crawlable pages. A name with no indexed site, no sitemap entry and no coverage under that string will not surface — even if similar products exist. Publish the answer, then submit the URL.
Not financial advice. Prediction markets are restricted in some places. Market names belong to their venues. Detected early, not a prediction. We count.