AI 2027: how does the scenario compare with what has been measured?
What the AI 2027 scenario said, how its authors have revised their dates since, and what SIREN's hourly AI activity count shows today.
What is AI 2027?
AI 2027 is a month-by-month scenario published in April 2025 by the AI Futures Project, a group led by former OpenAI researcher Daniel Kokotajlo. It describes AI systems that automate coding and then AI research itself, and ends in two versions: a race and a slowdown. The authors called 2027 a central estimate, not a certainty. (ai-2027.com; Introducing AI 2027)
How have the authors revised it?
In early 2026 the group graded its own 2025 calls and put progress at roughly 58–66% of the scenario's pace on its quantitative measures, which pushed their dates later. On 10 November 2026 they moved earlier again: Kokotajlo's median date for a "superhuman AI researcher" went from December 2028 to May 2027, and the project's six forecasters gave medians between May and November 2027. (AI 2027 tracker; FutureSearch; FourWeekMBA)
What does SIREN add?
The scenario is a story about the future. SIREN is a count of the present: AI papers, releases, compute and capital deals, rules and prediction-market moves, scored every hour against a fixed reference. It cannot say whether AI 2027 comes true. It can show whether the activity the scenario describes is speeding up or slowing down, hour by hour, with receipts.
What does SIREN read right now?
49.0 of 100 · level 4 (ROUTINE) · 2026-11-15 22:16:02 UTC
- Capability 29.3 of 100
- Compute & Capital 57.8 of 100
- Attention 37.9 of 100
- Governance 55.8 of 100
This is a count of AI activity against a fixed reference, not a probability and not a prediction. How is it computed? · Live gauge
Which newsroom headlines mention this now?
5 recent headlines about AGI, superintelligence or automated AI research, matched by keyword, so read before trusting the match.
- In the early stages of Cadence, an open-source neural network architecture developed by Pragma Research, which sees to bring AGI to reality, here is a demo of a talking parrot who answers questions… 2026-11-15 16:12:08 UTC
- Motivations and incentives around AGI 2026-11-15 09:57:18 UTC
- Q3.5 Timelines Update: Looks Like the Intelligence Explosion Will Happen in 2027 After All 2026-11-15 04:32:32 UTC
- AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) Lockdown and the End of the World: Why We Are Waiting for the Apocalypse Again 2026-11-14 16:38:25 UTC
- Route coding agent requests to the right model on Amazon Bedrock with NVIDIA NeMo Switchyard 2026-11-13 22:30:12 UTC
Quick answers
What is AI 2027?
A scenario published in April 2025 by the AI Futures Project, led by Daniel Kokotajlo, describing AI that automates coding and then AI research, with a race ending and a slowdown ending.
Have the AI 2027 authors changed their dates?
Yes, both ways. An early-2026 self-grading put progress at about 58–66% of the scenario's pace. A 10 November 2026 update moved Kokotajlo's median for a superhuman AI researcher to May 2027.
Sourced facts checked 2026-11-14. SIREN measures how much is happening, not how bad it is. Levels run from 5 (quietest) to 1 (loudest) and describe observable activity tempo against this index’s own record. They are not a probability of harm.