{
  "constants": {
    "boundaries": {
      "2": 85,
      "3": 70,
      "4": 55,
      "5": 35
    },
    "composite_weights": {
      "max": 0.3,
      "mean": 0.7
    },
    "deadband": 3,
    "dwell_down_seconds": [
      43200,
      10800
    ],
    "dwell_up_seconds": [
      10800,
      1800
    ],
    "lock_ms": 14400000,
    "min_interval_ms": 21600000,
    "nowcast_min_weight": 0.5,
    "nowcast_window": 12,
    "quorum": 2,
    "rounding": {
      "percentile_decimals": 6,
      "score_decimals": 4
    },
    "score_centre": 50,
    "score_z_scale": 12.5
  },
  "dark_pillars": [],
  "decision": {
    "direction": "escalate",
    "proposed_level": 3,
    "quorum_agreeing": null,
    "quorum_required": 2,
    "threshold": 58,
    "window_means": {},
    "windows_seconds": [
      10800,
      1800
    ]
  },
  "degraded": true,
  "delta_from_previous": 0.5472,
  "engine_version": "1.0.0",
  "generated_at": "2026-11-03T06:43:53.185Z",
  "hash": "sha256:5a61095d70e7352cd95fc4047ffc41879e1e94d71883aa9d97eb39dda76fc26c",
  "id": "2026-11-03T06-43-53Z",
  "inputs": [
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "arxiv",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        59.1656,
        57.0412,
        null,
        47.495,
        40.9346,
        41.4762,
        33.8188,
        28.3201,
        28.6451,
        28.9841,
        29.1749,
        29.361
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 11,
      "nowcast_w": 0.5,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-03T06:43:53.201Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.768296,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.768296,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "reference_key": "arxiv",
      "score": 56.2663,
      "score_raw": 59.1656,
      "unit": "papers/7d",
      "value": 2200,
      "z": 0.733247
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"github-releases\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "github-releases",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-03T06:43:53.205Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "releases/30d",
      "value": 81,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"hf-datasets\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "hf-datasets",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-03T06:43:53.206Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "datasets/24h",
      "value": 1735,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"huggingface\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "huggingface",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-03T06:43:53.206Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "models/24h",
      "value": 3970,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"openrouter\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "openrouter",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-03T06:43:53.206Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "models/30d",
      "value": 34,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"datacrunch\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "datacrunch",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-03T06:43:54.316Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "usd/gpu/hour",
      "value": 1.778,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "sec-fts",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        50.3171,
        50.3171,
        50.3171,
        50.3171,
        50.3171,
        50.3171,
        50.3171,
        50.3171,
        50.3171,
        50.3171,
        50.3171,
        50.3171
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 1,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-03T06:43:53.206Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.510119,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.510119,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "reference_key": "sec-fts",
      "score": 50.3171,
      "score_raw": 50.3171,
      "unit": "filings/30d",
      "value": 3662,
      "z": 0.025367
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"stockanalysis\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "stockanalysis",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-03T06:43:53.207Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "mean_abs_percent_change",
      "value": 2.9524999999999997,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"vastai\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "vastai",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-03T06:43:53.697Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "usd/gpu/hour",
      "value": 0.4292592592592593,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "hn",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        50.02,
        49.7047,
        49.6037,
        49.3369,
        49.1663,
        49.0142,
        48.579,
        49.2998,
        49.3591,
        49.1589,
        48.7997,
        47.8408
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.9564,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-03T06:43:53.207Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.500638,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.500638,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "reference_key": "hn",
      "score": 49.2218,
      "score_raw": 50.02,
      "unit": "points/24h",
      "value": 1632,
      "z": 0.001599
    },
    {
      "error": "timeout after 15000ms: https://www.intelligencearena.ai/api/arena/latest",
      "id": "intelligence-arena",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": null,
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "unit": null,
      "value": null,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "wikipedia",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        63.5974,
        63.5974,
        63.5974,
        63.5974,
        69.1365,
        69.1365,
        69.1365,
        69.1365,
        69.1365,
        69.1365,
        69.1365,
        69.1365
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.9199,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-02T23:59:59.999Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.861657,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.861657,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "reference_key": "wikipedia",
      "score": 66.6512,
      "score_raw": 63.5974,
      "unit": "pageviews/day",
      "value": 166179.14285714287,
      "z": 1.087794
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"wikipedia-zh\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "wikipedia-zh",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-03T06:43:53.617Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "pageviews/day",
      "value": 427.25396825396825,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "federal-register",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        55.8462,
        55.8462,
        55.8462,
        55.8462,
        55.8462,
        55.8462,
        55.8462,
        55.8462,
        55.8462,
        55.8462,
        55.8462,
        55.8462
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 1,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-03T06:43:53.208Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.68,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.68,
      "pillar": "governance",
      "reference_key": "federal-register",
      "score": 55.8462,
      "score_raw": 55.8462,
      "unit": "documents/30d",
      "value": 30,
      "z": 0.467699
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"govuk\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "govuk",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-03T06:43:53.208Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "governance",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "documents/30d",
      "value": 195,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"kalshi\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "kalshi",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-03T06:44:02.383Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "prob_points/day",
      "value": 0.026124162590547943,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"manifold\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "manifold",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-03T06:43:55.248Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "mana/24h",
      "value": 15503.612920195765,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"polymarket\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "polymarket",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-03T06:43:58.475Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "prob_points/day",
      "value": 0.028285122891554472,
      "z": null
    }
  ],
  "level": 4,
  "level_changed": false,
  "level_name": "ROUTINE",
  "pillars": [
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "capability",
      "name": "Capability",
      "percentile": 0.768296,
      "score": 56.2663,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 5,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "compute",
      "name": "Compute & Capital",
      "percentile": 0.510119,
      "score": 50.3171,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 4,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "attention",
      "name": "Attention",
      "percentile": 0.681148,
      "score": 57.9365,
      "sources_ok": 2,
      "sources_total": 4,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "governance",
      "name": "Governance",
      "percentile": 0.68,
      "score": 55.8462,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 2,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "markets",
      "name": "Markets",
      "percentile": null,
      "score": null,
      "sources_ok": 0,
      "sources_total": 3,
      "uncalibrated": true
    }
  ],
  "prev_hash": "sha256:5f2fde5b3cf7260b72e537a0e93895f89e408be4e45ed3f5d39f32ccf76a00ec",
  "raw_generated_at": "2026-11-03T06:43:53.185Z",
  "reference": {
    "built_at": "2026-09-23T20:03:56.869Z",
    "hash": "sha256:f91658b2dc572ae2b5a74ff21e869dd9aa6f814ff68f1b66462708b91dfaf6e7"
  },
  "rule_fired": "deadband",
  "schema": 1,
  "score": 55.945,
  "uncalibrated_pillars": [
    "markets"
  ],
  "uncalibrated_sources": [
    "github-releases",
    "hf-datasets",
    "huggingface",
    "openrouter",
    "datacrunch",
    "stockanalysis",
    "vastai",
    "wikipedia-zh",
    "govuk",
    "kalshi",
    "manifold",
    "polymarket"
  ]
}