{
  "constants": {
    "boundaries": {
      "2": 85,
      "3": 70,
      "4": 55,
      "5": 35
    },
    "composite_weights": {
      "max": 0.3,
      "mean": 0.7
    },
    "deadband": 3,
    "dwell_down_seconds": [
      43200,
      10800
    ],
    "dwell_up_seconds": [
      10800,
      1800
    ],
    "lock_ms": 14400000,
    "min_interval_ms": 21600000,
    "nowcast_min_weight": 0.5,
    "nowcast_window": 12,
    "quorum": 2,
    "rounding": {
      "percentile_decimals": 6,
      "score_decimals": 4
    },
    "score_centre": 50,
    "score_z_scale": 12.5
  },
  "dark_pillars": [],
  "decision": null,
  "degraded": true,
  "delta_from_previous": -0.2271,
  "engine_version": "1.0.0",
  "generated_at": "2026-11-02T14:08:06.795Z",
  "hash": "sha256:cd1eeed31045b02b8fe5875fe9ad6ee691eedad884bcd120c465bb3bc782b79f",
  "id": "2026-11-02T14-08-06Z",
  "inputs": [
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "arxiv",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        38.4055,
        39.3471,
        39.7516,
        40.9346,
        41.7241,
        42.0724,
        42.3935,
        43.3296,
        43.8019,
        44.1269,
        44.7174,
        44.9815
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.8538,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-02T14:08:06.820Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.176819,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.176819,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "reference_key": "arxiv",
      "score": 41.0405,
      "score_raw": 38.4055,
      "unit": "papers/7d",
      "value": 1625,
      "z": -0.927556
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"github-releases\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "github-releases",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-02T14:08:06.825Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "releases/30d",
      "value": 81,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"hf-datasets\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "hf-datasets",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-02T14:08:06.826Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "datasets/24h",
      "value": 1626,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"huggingface\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "huggingface",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-02T14:08:06.826Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "models/24h",
      "value": 3946,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"openrouter\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "openrouter",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-02T14:08:06.827Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "models/30d",
      "value": 34,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"datacrunch\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "datacrunch",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-02T14:08:08.535Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "usd/gpu/hour",
      "value": 1.778,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "sec-fts",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        49.3731,
        49.3107,
        49.2296,
        49.1735,
        48.9119,
        48.9119,
        48.9119,
        48.9119,
        48.9119,
        48.9119,
        48.9119,
        48.9119
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.9907,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-02T14:08:06.827Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.48,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.48,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "reference_key": "sec-fts",
      "score": 49.0366,
      "score_raw": 49.3731,
      "unit": "filings/30d",
      "value": 3498,
      "z": -0.050154
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"stockanalysis\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "stockanalysis",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-02T14:08:06.828Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "mean_abs_percent_change",
      "value": 6.6325,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"vastai\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "vastai",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-02T14:08:07.801Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "usd/gpu/hour",
      "value": 0.44296296296296295,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "hn",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        41.5689,
        44.5752,
        44.6026,
        43.5895,
        44.046,
        43.5354,
        42.6833,
        41.9236,
        41.1187,
        40.943,
        40.4861,
        47.0429
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.8606,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-02T14:08:06.828Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.25,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.25,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "reference_key": "hn",
      "score": 43.1544,
      "score_raw": 41.5689,
      "unit": "points/24h",
      "value": 1179,
      "z": -0.67449
    },
    {
      "error": "timeout after 15000ms: https://www.intelligencearena.ai/api/arena/latest",
      "id": "intelligence-arena",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": null,
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "unit": null,
      "value": null,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "wikipedia",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        69.1365,
        69.1365,
        69.1365,
        69.1365,
        69.1365,
        69.1365,
        69.1365,
        69.1365,
        69.1365,
        69.1365,
        69.1365,
        69.1365
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 1,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-01T23:59:59.999Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.937105,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.937105,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "reference_key": "wikipedia",
      "score": 69.1365,
      "score_raw": 69.1365,
      "unit": "pageviews/day",
      "value": 177058.57142857142,
      "z": 1.530917
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"wikipedia-zh\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "wikipedia-zh",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-02T14:08:07.343Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "pageviews/day",
      "value": 432.4761904761905,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "federal-register",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        55.8462,
        55.8462,
        55.8462,
        55.8462,
        55.8462,
        55.8462,
        55.8462,
        55.8462,
        55.8462,
        55.8462,
        55.8462,
        55.8462
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 1,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-02T14:08:06.829Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.68,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.68,
      "pillar": "governance",
      "reference_key": "federal-register",
      "score": 55.8462,
      "score_raw": 55.8462,
      "unit": "documents/30d",
      "value": 30,
      "z": 0.467699
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"govuk\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "govuk",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-02T14:08:06.829Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "governance",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "documents/30d",
      "value": 191,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"kalshi\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "kalshi",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-02T14:08:17.261Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "prob_points/day",
      "value": 0.01603639624827705,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"manifold\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "manifold",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-02T14:08:08.604Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "mana/24h",
      "value": 11560.734497987383,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"polymarket\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "polymarket",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-11-02T14:08:12.162Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "prob_points/day",
      "value": 0.02929097150172422,
      "z": null
    }
  ],
  "level": 4,
  "level_changed": false,
  "level_name": "ROUTINE",
  "pillars": [
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "capability",
      "name": "Capability",
      "percentile": 0.176819,
      "score": 41.0405,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 5,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "compute",
      "name": "Compute & Capital",
      "percentile": 0.48,
      "score": 49.0366,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 4,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "attention",
      "name": "Attention",
      "percentile": 0.593552,
      "score": 56.1454,
      "sources_ok": 2,
      "sources_total": 4,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "governance",
      "name": "Governance",
      "percentile": 0.68,
      "score": 55.8462,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 2,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "markets",
      "name": "Markets",
      "percentile": null,
      "score": null,
      "sources_ok": 0,
      "sources_total": 3,
      "uncalibrated": true
    }
  ],
  "prev_hash": "sha256:6c97b57268f8d450e6213da91d988b679e96c03321e9b442e6fbae659869eda2",
  "raw_generated_at": "2026-11-02T14:08:06.795Z",
  "reference": {
    "built_at": "2026-09-23T20:03:56.869Z",
    "hash": "sha256:f91658b2dc572ae2b5a74ff21e869dd9aa6f814ff68f1b66462708b91dfaf6e7"
  },
  "rule_fired": "none",
  "schema": 1,
  "score": 52.2056,
  "uncalibrated_pillars": [
    "markets"
  ],
  "uncalibrated_sources": [
    "github-releases",
    "hf-datasets",
    "huggingface",
    "openrouter",
    "datacrunch",
    "stockanalysis",
    "vastai",
    "wikipedia-zh",
    "govuk",
    "kalshi",
    "manifold",
    "polymarket"
  ]
}