{
  "constants": {
    "boundaries": {
      "2": 85,
      "3": 70,
      "4": 55,
      "5": 35
    },
    "composite_weights": {
      "max": 0.3,
      "mean": 0.7
    },
    "deadband": 3,
    "dwell_down_seconds": [
      43200,
      10800
    ],
    "dwell_up_seconds": [
      10800,
      1800
    ],
    "lock_ms": 14400000,
    "min_interval_ms": 21600000,
    "nowcast_min_weight": 0.5,
    "nowcast_window": 12,
    "quorum": 2,
    "rounding": {
      "percentile_decimals": 6,
      "score_decimals": 4
    },
    "score_centre": 50,
    "score_z_scale": 12.5
  },
  "dark_pillars": [],
  "decision": {
    "direction": "escalate",
    "proposed_level": 3,
    "quorum_agreeing": null,
    "quorum_required": 2,
    "threshold": 58,
    "window_means": {},
    "windows_seconds": [
      10800,
      1800
    ]
  },
  "degraded": true,
  "delta_from_previous": 0.1784,
  "engine_version": "1.0.0",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-22T06:14:34.484Z",
  "hash": "sha256:0369975960cb9cac22920b8ab3fc930dee38c903411fce3ec690d2c4987fe4db",
  "id": "2026-10-22T06-14-34Z",
  "inputs": [
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "arxiv",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        65.3878,
        65.6539,
        65.8847,
        66.1819,
        null,
        66.8078,
        67.0077,
        65.0903,
        60.9359,
        61.1415,
        61.5057,
        61.5893
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 11,
      "nowcast_w": 0.9094,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-22T06:14:34.510Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.890843,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.890843,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "reference_key": "arxiv",
      "score": 64.8264,
      "score_raw": 65.3878,
      "unit": "papers/7d",
      "value": 2604,
      "z": 1.231024
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"github-releases\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "github-releases",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-22T06:14:34.515Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "releases/30d",
      "value": 80,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"hf-datasets\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "hf-datasets",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-22T06:14:34.516Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "datasets/24h",
      "value": 1855,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"huggingface\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "huggingface",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-22T06:14:34.517Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "models/24h",
      "value": 4319,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"openrouter\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "openrouter",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-22T06:14:34.517Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "models/30d",
      "value": 52,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"datacrunch\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "datacrunch",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-22T06:14:35.247Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "usd/gpu/hour",
      "value": 1.6280000000000001,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "sec-fts",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        46.1024,
        46.1024,
        46.1024,
        46.1024,
        46.1024,
        46.1024,
        46.1024,
        46.1024,
        46.1024,
        46.1024,
        47.4822,
        47.4822
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.9709,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-22T06:14:34.517Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.377592,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.377592,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "reference_key": "sec-fts",
      "score": 46.2998,
      "score_raw": 46.1024,
      "unit": "filings/30d",
      "value": 3036,
      "z": -0.311811
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"stockanalysis\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "stockanalysis",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-22T06:14:34.518Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "mean_abs_percent_change",
      "value": 2.1325,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"vastai\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "vastai",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-22T06:14:34.814Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "usd/gpu/hour",
      "value": 0.662037037037037,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "hn",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        48.2815,
        48.0697,
        47.8824,
        47.7751,
        47.6644,
        47.5657,
        46.9582,
        45.7991,
        44.7941,
        44.6848,
        44.5568,
        44.5385
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.9225,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-22T06:14:34.518Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.445327,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.445327,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "reference_key": "hn",
      "score": 46.9248,
      "score_raw": 48.2815,
      "unit": "points/24h",
      "value": 1510,
      "z": -0.137477
    },
    {
      "error": "timeout after 15000ms: https://www.intelligencearena.ai/api/arena/latest",
      "id": "intelligence-arena",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": null,
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "unit": null,
      "value": null,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "wikipedia",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        45.0767,
        45.0767,
        39.6917,
        45.0767,
        45.0767,
        39.6917,
        39.6917,
        39.6917,
        39.6917,
        39.6917,
        39.6917,
        39.6917
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.8805,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-21T23:59:59.999Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.346841,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.346841,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "reference_key": "wikipedia",
      "score": 42.2924,
      "score_raw": 45.0767,
      "unit": "pageviews/day",
      "value": 120548.14285714286,
      "z": -0.393863
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"wikipedia-zh\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "wikipedia-zh",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-22T06:14:34.849Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "pageviews/day",
      "value": 309.4920634920635,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "federal-register",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        53.1668,
        53.1668,
        52.9066,
        52.9066,
        52.9066,
        52.9066,
        52.9066,
        52.9066,
        52.9066,
        52.9066,
        53.1668,
        53.1668
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.9951,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-22T06:14:34.520Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.6,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.6,
      "pillar": "governance",
      "reference_key": "federal-register",
      "score": 52.9933,
      "score_raw": 53.1668,
      "unit": "documents/30d",
      "value": 26,
      "z": 0.253347
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"govuk\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "govuk",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-22T06:14:34.520Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "governance",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "documents/30d",
      "value": 179,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"kalshi\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "kalshi",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-22T06:14:43.336Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "prob_points/day",
      "value": 0.0187103231818351,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"manifold\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "manifold",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-22T06:14:35.458Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "mana/24h",
      "value": 11325.228646803245,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"polymarket\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "polymarket",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-22T06:14:39.540Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "prob_points/day",
      "value": 0.030322660836171415,
      "z": null
    }
  ],
  "level": 4,
  "level_changed": false,
  "level_name": "ROUTINE",
  "pillars": [
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "capability",
      "name": "Capability",
      "percentile": 0.890843,
      "score": 64.8264,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 5,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "compute",
      "name": "Compute & Capital",
      "percentile": 0.377592,
      "score": 46.2998,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 4,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "attention",
      "name": "Attention",
      "percentile": 0.396084,
      "score": 44.6086,
      "sources_ok": 2,
      "sources_total": 4,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "governance",
      "name": "Governance",
      "percentile": 0.6,
      "score": 52.9933,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 2,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "markets",
      "name": "Markets",
      "percentile": null,
      "score": null,
      "sources_ok": 0,
      "sources_total": 3,
      "uncalibrated": true
    }
  ],
  "prev_hash": "sha256:9c1b960a37d35eb0cf14daa663f4a27a73252df2c33b8dd4353dd02b9fe46dbb",
  "raw_generated_at": "2026-10-22T06:14:34.484Z",
  "reference": {
    "built_at": "2026-09-23T20:03:56.869Z",
    "hash": "sha256:f91658b2dc572ae2b5a74ff21e869dd9aa6f814ff68f1b66462708b91dfaf6e7"
  },
  "rule_fired": "deadband",
  "schema": 1,
  "score": 55.9753,
  "uncalibrated_pillars": [
    "markets"
  ],
  "uncalibrated_sources": [
    "github-releases",
    "hf-datasets",
    "huggingface",
    "openrouter",
    "datacrunch",
    "stockanalysis",
    "vastai",
    "wikipedia-zh",
    "govuk",
    "kalshi",
    "manifold",
    "polymarket"
  ]
}
