{
  "constants": {
    "boundaries": {
      "2": 85,
      "3": 70,
      "4": 55,
      "5": 35
    },
    "composite_weights": {
      "max": 0.3,
      "mean": 0.7
    },
    "deadband": 3,
    "dwell_down_seconds": [
      43200,
      10800
    ],
    "dwell_up_seconds": [
      10800,
      1800
    ],
    "lock_ms": 14400000,
    "min_interval_ms": 21600000,
    "nowcast_min_weight": 0.5,
    "nowcast_window": 12,
    "quorum": 2,
    "rounding": {
      "percentile_decimals": 6,
      "score_decimals": 4
    },
    "score_centre": 50,
    "score_z_scale": 12.5
  },
  "dark_pillars": [],
  "decision": {
    "direction": "escalate",
    "proposed_level": 3,
    "quorum_agreeing": null,
    "quorum_required": 2,
    "threshold": 58,
    "window_means": {},
    "windows_seconds": [
      10800,
      1800
    ]
  },
  "degraded": false,
  "delta_from_previous": -0.946,
  "engine_version": "1.0.0",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-15T18:41:09.341Z",
  "hash": "sha256:30bb6f30d39a7bcf046898ff90109f4c33651ab624d819ec8fd96d3e47a737ff",
  "id": "2026-10-15T18-41-09Z",
  "inputs": [
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "arxiv",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        64.1004,
        64.7167,
        64.981,
        65.2694,
        65.97,
        66.4848,
        66.9273,
        66.954,
        67.2397,
        67.4495,
        67.8729,
        67.9962
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.9427,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T18:41:09.362Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.870347,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.870347,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "reference_key": "arxiv",
      "score": 66.079,
      "score_raw": 64.1004,
      "unit": "papers/7d",
      "value": 2473,
      "z": 1.128033
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"github-releases\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "github-releases",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T18:41:09.362Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "releases/30d",
      "value": 80,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"huggingface\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "huggingface",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T18:41:09.363Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "models/24h",
      "value": 4999,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"openrouter\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "openrouter",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T18:41:09.363Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "models/30d",
      "value": 50,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "sec-fts",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        46.1162,
        46.0817,
        46.0748,
        46.0333,
        45.9987,
        45.9572,
        45.9226,
        45.9018,
        45.8197,
        45.8064,
        45.7863,
        45.7796
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.9927,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T18:41:09.363Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.378012,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.378012,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "reference_key": "sec-fts",
      "score": 45.9428,
      "score_raw": 46.1162,
      "unit": "filings/30d",
      "value": 3038,
      "z": -0.310706
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"stockanalysis\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "stockanalysis",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T18:41:09.364Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "mean_abs_percent_change",
      "value": 2.535,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"vastai\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "vastai",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T18:41:09.788Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "usd/gpu/hour",
      "value": 0.46888888888888886,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "hn",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        37.3718,
        56.9124,
        57.189,
        56.0377,
        58.3979,
        60.0712,
        59.8757,
        59.7926,
        59.6225,
        59.497,
        59.3802,
        59.2565
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.6221,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T18:41:09.364Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.156187,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.156187,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "reference_key": "hn",
      "score": 49.8145,
      "score_raw": 37.3718,
      "unit": "points/24h",
      "value": 937,
      "z": -1.010253
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"intelligence-arena\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "intelligence-arena",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T18:41:51.910Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "mentions",
      "value": 104152,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "wikipedia",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        31.6258,
        31.6258,
        31.6258,
        31.6258,
        31.6258,
        31.6258,
        31.6258,
        31.6258,
        31.6258,
        31.6258,
        31.6258,
        31.6258
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 1,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-14T23:59:59.999Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.07079,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.07079,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "reference_key": "wikipedia",
      "score": 31.6258,
      "score_raw": 31.6258,
      "unit": "pageviews/day",
      "value": 84610.85714285714,
      "z": -1.469933
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "federal-register",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 1,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T18:41:09.365Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.635,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.635,
      "pillar": "governance",
      "reference_key": "federal-register",
      "score": 54.3141,
      "score_raw": 54.3141,
      "unit": "documents/30d",
      "value": 28,
      "z": 0.345126
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"govuk\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "govuk",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T18:41:09.365Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "governance",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "documents/30d",
      "value": 175,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"kalshi\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "kalshi",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T18:41:18.459Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "prob_points/day",
      "value": 0.02304900867823495,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"manifold\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "manifold",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T18:41:10.980Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "mana/24h",
      "value": 16822.35973708061,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"polymarket\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "polymarket",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T18:41:20.023Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "prob_points/day",
      "value": 0.03936774531712924,
      "z": null
    }
  ],
  "level": 4,
  "level_changed": false,
  "level_name": "ROUTINE",
  "pillars": [
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "capability",
      "name": "Capability",
      "percentile": 0.870347,
      "score": 66.079,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 4,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "compute",
      "name": "Compute & Capital",
      "percentile": 0.378012,
      "score": 45.9428,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 3,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "attention",
      "name": "Attention",
      "percentile": 0.113488,
      "score": 40.7202,
      "sources_ok": 2,
      "sources_total": 3,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "governance",
      "name": "Governance",
      "percentile": 0.635,
      "score": 54.3141,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 2,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "markets",
      "name": "Markets",
      "percentile": null,
      "score": null,
      "sources_ok": 0,
      "sources_total": 3,
      "uncalibrated": true
    }
  ],
  "prev_hash": "sha256:c93ef37575e05d43302e8d80f3feccba9b358a82ef50fab66f7612b3b6da7302",
  "raw_generated_at": "2026-10-15T18:41:09.341Z",
  "reference": {
    "built_at": "2026-09-23T20:03:56.869Z",
    "hash": "sha256:f91658b2dc572ae2b5a74ff21e869dd9aa6f814ff68f1b66462708b91dfaf6e7"
  },
  "rule_fired": "deadband",
  "schema": 1,
  "score": 56.0585,
  "uncalibrated_pillars": [
    "markets"
  ],
  "uncalibrated_sources": [
    "github-releases",
    "huggingface",
    "openrouter",
    "stockanalysis",
    "vastai",
    "intelligence-arena",
    "govuk",
    "kalshi",
    "manifold",
    "polymarket"
  ]
}
