{
  "constants": {
    "boundaries": {
      "2": 85,
      "3": 70,
      "4": 55,
      "5": 35
    },
    "composite_weights": {
      "max": 0.3,
      "mean": 0.7
    },
    "deadband": 3,
    "dwell_down_seconds": [
      43200,
      10800
    ],
    "dwell_up_seconds": [
      10800,
      1800
    ],
    "lock_ms": 14400000,
    "min_interval_ms": 21600000,
    "nowcast_min_weight": 0.5,
    "nowcast_window": 12,
    "quorum": 2,
    "rounding": {
      "percentile_decimals": 6,
      "score_decimals": 4
    },
    "score_centre": 50,
    "score_z_scale": 12.5
  },
  "dark_pillars": [],
  "decision": {
    "direction": "escalate",
    "proposed_level": 3,
    "quorum_agreeing": null,
    "quorum_required": 2,
    "threshold": 58,
    "window_means": {
      "10800": 57.8775
    },
    "windows_seconds": [
      10800,
      1800
    ]
  },
  "degraded": true,
  "delta_from_previous": 0.0355,
  "engine_version": "1.0.0",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-15T11:36:09.367Z",
  "hash": "sha256:4c1f501724acebe58dabf8784631a4f3c606c905f829d9f9ca0a3bb815b310df",
  "id": "2026-10-15T11-36-09Z",
  "inputs": [
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "arxiv",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        67.4495,
        67.8729,
        67.9962,
        68.3957,
        68.6963,
        68.8223,
        69.1242,
        69.2571,
        69.3808,
        69.9712,
        70.4853,
        64.3592
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.9131,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T11:36:09.388Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.918637,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.918637,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "reference_key": "arxiv",
      "score": 68.4126,
      "score_raw": 67.4495,
      "unit": "papers/7d",
      "value": 2719,
      "z": 1.395962
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"github-releases\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "github-releases",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T11:36:09.389Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "releases/30d",
      "value": 80,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"huggingface\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "huggingface",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T11:36:09.389Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "models/24h",
      "value": 5092,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"openrouter\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "openrouter",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T11:36:09.389Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "models/30d",
      "value": 48,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "sec-fts",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        45.8064,
        45.7863,
        45.7796,
        45.7126,
        45.7126,
        45.7126,
        45.7126,
        45.7126,
        45.7126,
        45.7126,
        45.7126,
        46.3364
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.9865,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T11:36:09.390Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.368628,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.368628,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "reference_key": "sec-fts",
      "score": 45.7816,
      "score_raw": 45.8064,
      "unit": "filings/30d",
      "value": 2993,
      "z": -0.335489
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"stockanalysis\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "stockanalysis",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T11:36:09.390Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "mean_abs_percent_change",
      "value": 3.8475,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"vastai\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "vastai",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T11:36:09.650Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "usd/gpu/hour",
      "value": 0.4955555555555555,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "hn",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        59.497,
        59.3802,
        59.2565,
        61.2683,
        60.8017,
        60.6252,
        60.3297,
        60.1197,
        59.9314,
        60.3573,
        59.8065,
        49.9213
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.8148,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T11:36:09.391Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.7763,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.7763,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "reference_key": "hn",
      "score": 59.7664,
      "score_raw": 59.497,
      "unit": "points/24h",
      "value": 2365,
      "z": 0.759757
    },
    {
      "error": "timeout after 15000ms: https://www.intelligencearena.ai/api/arena/latest",
      "id": "intelligence-arena",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": null,
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "unit": null,
      "value": null,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "wikipedia",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        31.6258,
        31.6258,
        31.6258,
        31.6258,
        31.6258,
        31.6258,
        31.6258,
        31.6258,
        31.6258,
        31.6258,
        30.9023,
        30.9023
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.9771,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-14T23:59:59.999Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.07079,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.07079,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "reference_key": "wikipedia",
      "score": 31.5187,
      "score_raw": 31.6258,
      "unit": "pageviews/day",
      "value": 84610.85714285714,
      "z": -1.469933
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "federal-register",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 1,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T11:36:09.391Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.635,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.635,
      "pillar": "governance",
      "reference_key": "federal-register",
      "score": 54.3141,
      "score_raw": 54.3141,
      "unit": "documents/30d",
      "value": 28,
      "z": 0.345126
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"govuk\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "govuk",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T11:36:09.391Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "governance",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "documents/30d",
      "value": 172,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"kalshi\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "kalshi",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T11:36:18.089Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "prob_points/day",
      "value": 0.016526369001747917,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"manifold\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "manifold",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T11:36:10.551Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "mana/24h",
      "value": 13681.327191518929,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"polymarket\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "polymarket",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T11:36:14.312Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "prob_points/day",
      "value": 0.027028001429158816,
      "z": null
    }
  ],
  "level": 4,
  "level_changed": false,
  "level_name": "ROUTINE",
  "pillars": [
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "capability",
      "name": "Capability",
      "percentile": 0.918637,
      "score": 68.4126,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 4,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "compute",
      "name": "Compute & Capital",
      "percentile": 0.368628,
      "score": 45.7816,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 3,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "attention",
      "name": "Attention",
      "percentile": 0.423545,
      "score": 45.6425,
      "sources_ok": 2,
      "sources_total": 3,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "governance",
      "name": "Governance",
      "percentile": 0.635,
      "score": 54.3141,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 2,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "markets",
      "name": "Markets",
      "percentile": null,
      "score": null,
      "sources_ok": 0,
      "sources_total": 3,
      "uncalibrated": true
    }
  ],
  "prev_hash": "sha256:cab6525c4f4bbbc6f22e48876fed3a9520cfddbf27d13532ee7fafcc33ffa0a7",
  "raw_generated_at": "2026-10-15T11:36:09.367Z",
  "reference": {
    "built_at": "2026-09-23T20:03:56.869Z",
    "hash": "sha256:f91658b2dc572ae2b5a74ff21e869dd9aa6f814ff68f1b66462708b91dfaf6e7"
  },
  "rule_fired": "dwell",
  "schema": 1,
  "score": 58.0002,
  "uncalibrated_pillars": [
    "markets"
  ],
  "uncalibrated_sources": [
    "github-releases",
    "huggingface",
    "openrouter",
    "stockanalysis",
    "vastai",
    "govuk",
    "kalshi",
    "manifold",
    "polymarket"
  ]
}
