{
  "constants": {
    "boundaries": {
      "2": 85,
      "3": 70,
      "4": 55,
      "5": 35
    },
    "composite_weights": {
      "max": 0.3,
      "mean": 0.7
    },
    "deadband": 3,
    "dwell_down_seconds": [
      43200,
      10800
    ],
    "dwell_up_seconds": [
      10800,
      1800
    ],
    "lock_ms": 14400000,
    "min_interval_ms": 21600000,
    "nowcast_min_weight": 0.5,
    "nowcast_window": 12,
    "quorum": 2,
    "rounding": {
      "percentile_decimals": 6,
      "score_decimals": 4
    },
    "score_centre": 50,
    "score_z_scale": 12.5
  },
  "dark_pillars": [],
  "decision": {
    "direction": "escalate",
    "proposed_level": 3,
    "quorum_agreeing": null,
    "quorum_required": 2,
    "threshold": 58,
    "window_means": {},
    "windows_seconds": [
      10800,
      1800
    ]
  },
  "degraded": true,
  "delta_from_previous": 7.51,
  "engine_version": "1.0.0",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-14T17:47:22.451Z",
  "hash": "sha256:9b425fb37a80ed967b5d4b5382ad2b309f25d477b2d413e09006079a471fb056",
  "id": "2026-10-14T17-47-22Z",
  "inputs": [
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "arxiv",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        64.7493,
        null,
        65.0397,
        65.0819,
        65.4689,
        65.7163,
        66.4409,
        66.7815,
        69.4149,
        69.7265,
        69.761,
        68.5106
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 11,
      "nowcast_w": 0.9282,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-14T17:47:22.481Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.880989,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.880989,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "reference_key": "arxiv",
      "score": 66.5506,
      "score_raw": 64.7493,
      "unit": "papers/7d",
      "value": 2532,
      "z": 1.179945
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"github-releases\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "github-releases",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-14T17:47:22.482Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "releases/30d",
      "value": 78,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"huggingface\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "huggingface",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-14T17:47:22.483Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "models/24h",
      "value": 5070,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"openrouter\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "openrouter",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-14T17:47:22.483Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "models/30d",
      "value": 48,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "sec-fts",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        46.2003,
        46.1879,
        46.1506,
        46.1437,
        46.1162,
        46.1093,
        46.061,
        46.054,
        45.7327,
        45.7327,
        45.7327,
        45.7327
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.9899,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-14T17:47:22.484Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.380574,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.380574,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "reference_key": "sec-fts",
      "score": 46.0023,
      "score_raw": 46.2003,
      "unit": "filings/30d",
      "value": 3049,
      "z": -0.303974
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"stockanalysis\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "stockanalysis",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-14T17:47:22.485Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "mean_abs_percent_change",
      "value": 3.8575000000000004,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"vastai\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "vastai",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-14T17:47:23.701Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "usd/gpu/hour",
      "value": 0.525911111111111,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "hn",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        44.6026,
        43.9369,
        41.5047,
        41.1555,
        39.4797,
        38.8376,
        44.6026,
        47.367,
        50.888,
        52.1786,
        52.1252,
        51.9012
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.7443,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-14T17:47:22.485Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.332947,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.332947,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "reference_key": "hn",
      "score": 43.4512,
      "score_raw": 44.6026,
      "unit": "points/24h",
      "value": 1299,
      "z": -0.43179
    },
    {
      "error": "timeout after 15000ms: https://www.intelligencearena.ai/api/arena/latest",
      "id": "intelligence-arena",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": null,
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "unit": null,
      "value": null,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "wikipedia",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        30.9023,
        30.9023,
        30.9023,
        32.392,
        30.9023,
        30.9023,
        30.9023,
        30.9023,
        32.392,
        30.9023,
        30.9023,
        30.9023
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.954,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-13T23:59:59.999Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.063279,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.063279,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "reference_key": "wikipedia",
      "score": 31.149,
      "score_raw": 30.9023,
      "unit": "pageviews/day",
      "value": 83816.14285714287,
      "z": -1.527817
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "federal-register",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        54.3141,
        53.1668,
        53.1668,
        53.1668,
        53.1668
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.9789,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-14T17:47:22.486Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.635,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.635,
      "pillar": "governance",
      "reference_key": "federal-register",
      "score": 53.9638,
      "score_raw": 54.3141,
      "unit": "documents/30d",
      "value": 28,
      "z": 0.345126
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"govuk\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "govuk",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-14T17:47:22.487Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "governance",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "documents/30d",
      "value": 172,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"kalshi\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "kalshi",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-14T17:47:34.349Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "prob_points/day",
      "value": 0.033036867540154974,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"manifold\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "manifold",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-14T17:47:25.671Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "mana/24h",
      "value": 25009.894118725584,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"polymarket\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "polymarket",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-14T17:47:29.723Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "prob_points/day",
      "value": 0.03180021833434609,
      "z": null
    }
  ],
  "level": 4,
  "level_changed": false,
  "level_name": "ROUTINE",
  "pillars": [
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "capability",
      "name": "Capability",
      "percentile": 0.880989,
      "score": 66.5506,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 4,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "compute",
      "name": "Compute & Capital",
      "percentile": 0.380574,
      "score": 46.0023,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 3,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "attention",
      "name": "Attention",
      "percentile": 0.198113,
      "score": 37.3001,
      "sources_ok": 2,
      "sources_total": 3,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "governance",
      "name": "Governance",
      "percentile": 0.635,
      "score": 53.9638,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 2,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "markets",
      "name": "Markets",
      "percentile": null,
      "score": null,
      "sources_ok": 0,
      "sources_total": 3,
      "uncalibrated": true
    }
  ],
  "prev_hash": "sha256:02630270be28445b62fc0f6347fdd93c8e0cf683b418fdb5b45c3f481cd51ffe",
  "raw_generated_at": "2026-10-14T17:47:22.451Z",
  "reference": {
    "built_at": "2026-09-23T20:03:56.869Z",
    "hash": "sha256:f91658b2dc572ae2b5a74ff21e869dd9aa6f814ff68f1b66462708b91dfaf6e7"
  },
  "rule_fired": "deadband",
  "schema": 1,
  "score": 55.6331,
  "uncalibrated_pillars": [
    "markets"
  ],
  "uncalibrated_sources": [
    "github-releases",
    "huggingface",
    "openrouter",
    "stockanalysis",
    "vastai",
    "govuk",
    "kalshi",
    "manifold",
    "polymarket"
  ]
}
