{
  "constants": {
    "boundaries": {
      "2": 85,
      "3": 70,
      "4": 55,
      "5": 35
    },
    "composite_weights": {
      "max": 0.3,
      "mean": 0.7
    },
    "deadband": 3,
    "dwell_down_seconds": [
      43200,
      10800
    ],
    "dwell_up_seconds": [
      10800,
      1800
    ],
    "lock_ms": 14400000,
    "min_interval_ms": 21600000,
    "nowcast_min_weight": 0.5,
    "nowcast_window": 12,
    "quorum": 2,
    "rounding": {
      "percentile_decimals": 6,
      "score_decimals": 4
    },
    "score_centre": 50,
    "score_z_scale": 12.5
  },
  "dark_pillars": [],
  "decision": null,
  "degraded": true,
  "delta_from_previous": -0.0283,
  "engine_version": "1.0.0",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-12T16:18:06.366Z",
  "hash": "sha256:0e5d28731db74e723a41f9d9d8b1da51e2a9e5383cb8c44a510da5499223957a",
  "id": "2026-10-12T16-18-06Z",
  "inputs": [
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "arxiv",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        58.426,
        59.4339,
        59.477,
        60.5738,
        61.1844,
        61.9925,
        null,
        62.4105,
        62.4238,
        62.7059,
        62.7831,
        63.0891
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 11,
      "nowcast_w": 0.9261,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-12T16:18:06.386Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.74987,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.74987,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "reference_key": "arxiv",
      "score": 60.9091,
      "score_raw": 58.426,
      "unit": "papers/7d",
      "value": 2181,
      "z": 0.674081
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"github-releases\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "github-releases",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-12T16:18:06.387Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "releases/30d",
      "value": 75,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"huggingface\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "huggingface",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-12T16:18:06.387Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "models/24h",
      "value": 4391,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"openrouter\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "openrouter",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-12T16:18:06.387Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "capability",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "models/30d",
      "value": 44,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "sec-fts",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        43.953,
        43.953,
        43.953,
        43.953,
        43.953,
        43.953,
        43.953,
        43.953,
        43.953,
        43.953,
        43.953,
        43.953
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 1,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-12T16:18:06.388Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.314277,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.314277,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "reference_key": "sec-fts",
      "score": 43.953,
      "score_raw": 43.953,
      "unit": "filings/30d",
      "value": 2832,
      "z": -0.483763
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"stockanalysis\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "stockanalysis",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-12T16:18:06.388Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "mean_abs_percent_change",
      "value": 1.4700000000000002,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"vastai\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "vastai",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-12T16:18:06.926Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "compute",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "usd/gpu/hour",
      "value": 0.46324074074074073,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "hn",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        38.7493,
        36.1513,
        35.3754,
        30.9836,
        29.5159,
        25.5454,
        23.6623,
        23.0392,
        22.6737,
        29.9058,
        29.778,
        29.4099
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.5851,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-12T16:18:06.389Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.184045,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.184045,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "reference_key": "hn",
      "score": 35.6105,
      "score_raw": 38.7493,
      "unit": "points/24h",
      "value": 1030,
      "z": -0.900057
    },
    {
      "error": "timeout after 15000ms: https://www.intelligencearena.ai/api/arena/latest",
      "id": "intelligence-arena",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": null,
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "unit": null,
      "value": null,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "wikipedia",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        34.0227,
        34.0227,
        33.7098,
        33.7098,
        33.7098,
        34.0227,
        33.7098,
        33.7098,
        33.7098,
        33.7098,
        33.7098,
        33.7098
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 0.9908,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-10T23:59:59.999Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.100592,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.100592,
      "pillar": "attention",
      "reference_key": "wikipedia",
      "score": 33.7906,
      "score_raw": 34.0227,
      "unit": "pageviews/day",
      "value": 88683.28571428574,
      "z": -1.278186
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "federal-register",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": [
        52.9066,
        52.9066,
        52.9066,
        52.9066,
        52.9066,
        52.9066,
        52.9066,
        52.9066,
        52.9066,
        52.9066,
        52.9066,
        52.9066
      ],
      "nowcast_used": 12,
      "nowcast_w": 1,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-12T16:18:06.389Z",
      "ok": true,
      "percentile": 0.591935,
      "percentile_adjusted": 0.591935,
      "pillar": "governance",
      "reference_key": "federal-register",
      "score": 52.9066,
      "score_raw": 52.9066,
      "unit": "documents/30d",
      "value": 25,
      "z": 0.232525
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"govuk\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "govuk",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-12T16:18:06.389Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "governance",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "documents/30d",
      "value": 154,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"kalshi\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "kalshi",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-12T16:18:16.804Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "prob_points/day",
      "value": 0.02451349489972877,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"manifold\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "manifold",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-12T16:18:09.468Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "mana/24h",
      "value": 13310.61371602531,
      "z": null
    },
    {
      "error": "uncalibrated: \"polymarket\" has no entry in data/reference.json yet, so it is collected and published but not scored",
      "id": "polymarket",
      "label": null,
      "nowcast_series": null,
      "nowcast_w": null,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-12T16:18:11.997Z",
      "ok": false,
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "markets",
      "score": null,
      "score_raw": null,
      "uncalibrated": true,
      "unit": "prob_points/day",
      "value": 0.017718390133652093,
      "z": null
    }
  ],
  "level": 4,
  "level_changed": false,
  "level_name": "ROUTINE",
  "pillars": [
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "capability",
      "name": "Capability",
      "percentile": 0.74987,
      "score": 60.9091,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 4,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "compute",
      "name": "Compute & Capital",
      "percentile": 0.314277,
      "score": 43.953,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 3,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "attention",
      "name": "Attention",
      "percentile": 0.142318,
      "score": 34.7005,
      "sources_ok": 2,
      "sources_total": 3,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "governance",
      "name": "Governance",
      "percentile": 0.591935,
      "score": 52.9066,
      "sources_ok": 1,
      "sources_total": 2,
      "uncalibrated": false
    },
    {
      "dark": false,
      "id": "markets",
      "name": "Markets",
      "percentile": null,
      "score": null,
      "sources_ok": 0,
      "sources_total": 3,
      "uncalibrated": true
    }
  ],
  "prev_hash": "sha256:ae0f4e208be58eae1364460b0c9681d018cf8363d2f6527395a101413c8c74f9",
  "raw_generated_at": "2026-10-12T16:18:06.366Z",
  "reference": {
    "built_at": "2026-09-23T20:03:56.869Z",
    "hash": "sha256:f91658b2dc572ae2b5a74ff21e869dd9aa6f814ff68f1b66462708b91dfaf6e7"
  },
  "rule_fired": "none",
  "schema": 1,
  "score": 51.9548,
  "uncalibrated_pillars": [
    "markets"
  ],
  "uncalibrated_sources": [
    "github-releases",
    "huggingface",
    "openrouter",
    "stockanalysis",
    "vastai",
    "govuk",
    "kalshi",
    "manifold",
    "polymarket"
  ]
}
