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          "state": "live",
          "truncated_repos": [
            "QwenLM/qwen-code"
          ],
          "unit": "releases/30d",
          "window_days": 30
        },
        "huggingface": {
          "authors": [
            "Qwen"
          ],
          "failed_authors": [],
          "incomplete": false,
          "is_floor": false,
          "models_30d": 3,
          "newest_at": "2026-10-09T04:50:01.000Z",
          "per_author": {
            "Qwen": {
              "is_floor": false,
              "models_30d": 3,
              "newest_at": "2026-10-09T04:50:01.000Z",
              "repos_returned": 100,
              "sample": [
                "Qwen/Qwen-Image-2.1-PE-I2I",
                "Qwen/Qwen-Image-2.1-PE-T2I",
                "Qwen/Qwen-Image-2.1-Turbo"
              ]
            }
          },
          "state": "live",
          "unit": "model repos/30d",
          "window_days": 30
        },
        "openrouter": {
          "catalogue": 42,
          "caveat": "created is when OpenRouter listed the model, not when the vendor announced it.",
          "listed_30d": 2,
          "newest_listed_at": "2026-09-23T19:20:28.000Z",
          "prefixes": [
            "qwen"
          ],
          "state": "live",
          "unit": "listings/30d",
          "window_days": 30
        }
      },
      "why": "0.5%, −44.0 points against Anthropic. ≥10 GitHub releases, 3 Hugging Face model repos, 2 OpenRouter listings in 30 days.",
      "why_components": [
        "Polymarket has no week-old reference for this leg.",
        "Kalshi's separate \"top-ranked this year\" contract has them at 1%.",
        "Named in 0.4% of the 800-item news window (+0.5 points across the window).",
        "≥10 GitHub releases, 3 Hugging Face model repos, 2 OpenRouter listings in 30 days."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "deepseek",
      "loudness": {
        "feed": null,
        "newest_at": null,
        "posts_30d": null,
        "posts_7d": null,
        "reason": "Liang Wenfeng maintains no public feed in any language we can fetch.",
        "state": "no_feed"
      },
      "market": {
        "change_7d": -0.0005,
        "change_7d_state": "live",
        "horizon_event": {
          "end_date": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
          "slug": "which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026",
          "title": "Which company has best AI model end of 2026?",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026"
        },
        "kalshi": {
          "change_24h": 0,
          "change_24h_state": "live",
          "leg_title": "Deepseek",
          "probability": 0.05,
          "question": "Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?",
          "ticker": "KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-DEPP",
          "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtopai",
          "volume_contracts": 22876.12
        },
        "kalshi_state": "live",
        "leg_title": "DeepSeek",
        "probability": 0.0045,
        "spot": {
          "change_7d": null,
          "event": {
            "end_date": "2026-10-31T16:00:00Z",
            "slug": "which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october",
            "title": "Which company has the best AI model end of October?",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october"
          },
          "leg_title": "DeepSeek",
          "probability": 0.0005
        },
        "spot_state": "live",
        "state": "live",
        "volume_usd": 141606
      },
      "mindshare": {
        "caveat": null,
        "corpus": 800,
        "delta": 0.003,
        "delta_state": "live",
        "entities": [
          "DeepSeek",
          "DeepSeek-R"
        ],
        "is_floor": false,
        "items": 2,
        "prior_corpus": 143,
        "prior_items": 0,
        "prior_share": 0,
        "recent_corpus": 657,
        "recent_items": 2,
        "recent_share": 0.003,
        "share": 0.0025,
        "state": "live"
      },
      "name": "DeepSeek",
      "principal": "Liang Wenfeng",
      "principal_note": null,
      "principal_role": "Founder",
      "rank": 7,
      "shipping": {
        "github": {
          "failed_repos": [],
          "incomplete": false,
          "is_floor": false,
          "per_repo": {
            "deepseek-ai/DeepEP": 0,
            "deepseek-ai/DeepGEMM": 0,
            "deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1": 0,
            "deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V3": 0
          },
          "releases_30d": 0,
          "repos_answered": 4,
          "repos_total": 4,
          "state": "live",
          "truncated_repos": [],
          "unit": "releases/30d",
          "window_days": 30
        },
        "huggingface": {
          "authors": [
            "deepseek-ai"
          ],
          "failed_authors": [],
          "incomplete": false,
          "is_floor": false,
          "models_30d": 0,
          "newest_at": "2026-09-10T02:17:58.000Z",
          "per_author": {
            "deepseek-ai": {
              "is_floor": false,
              "models_30d": 0,
              "newest_at": "2026-09-10T02:17:58.000Z",
              "repos_returned": 100,
              "sample": []
            }
          },
          "state": "live",
          "unit": "model repos/30d",
          "window_days": 30
        },
        "openrouter": {
          "catalogue": 15,
          "caveat": "created is when OpenRouter listed the model, not when the vendor announced it.",
          "listed_30d": 0,
          "newest_listed_at": "2026-09-10T06:21:25.000Z",
          "prefixes": [
            "deepseek"
          ],
          "state": "live",
          "unit": "listings/30d",
          "window_days": 30
        }
      },
      "why": "0.4%, −44.0 points against Anthropic. Nothing published to the three channels we watch in 30 days.",
      "why_components": [
        "−0.1 points over 7 days.",
        "Kalshi's separate \"top-ranked this year\" contract has them at 5%.",
        "Named in 0.3% of the 800-item news window (+0.3 points across the window).",
        "Nothing published to the three channels we watch in 30 days."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "mistral",
      "loudness": {
        "feed": null,
        "newest_at": null,
        "posts_30d": null,
        "posts_7d": null,
        "reason": "No personal feed. Mistral publishes as a company; Arthur Mensch does not.",
        "state": "no_feed"
      },
      "market": {
        "change_7d": null,
        "change_7d_state": "no_reference",
        "horizon_event": {
          "end_date": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
          "slug": "which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026",
          "title": "Which company has best AI model end of 2026?",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026"
        },
        "kalshi": {
          "change_24h": 0,
          "change_24h_state": "live",
          "leg_title": "Mistral",
          "probability": 0.03,
          "question": "Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?",
          "ticker": "KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-MIST",
          "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtopai",
          "volume_contracts": 4660.35
        },
        "kalshi_state": "live",
        "leg_title": "Mistral",
        "probability": 0.0025,
        "spot": {
          "change_7d": null,
          "event": {
            "end_date": "2026-10-31T16:00:00Z",
            "slug": "which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october",
            "title": "Which company has the best AI model end of October?",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october"
          },
          "leg_title": "Mistral",
          "probability": 0.0005
        },
        "spot_state": "live",
        "state": "live",
        "volume_usd": 190963
      },
      "mindshare": {
        "caveat": null,
        "corpus": 800,
        "delta": 0,
        "delta_state": "live",
        "entities": [
          "Mistral",
          "Mixtral"
        ],
        "is_floor": false,
        "items": 0,
        "prior_corpus": 143,
        "prior_items": 0,
        "prior_share": 0,
        "recent_corpus": 657,
        "recent_items": 0,
        "recent_share": 0,
        "share": 0,
        "state": "live"
      },
      "name": "Mistral",
      "principal": "Arthur Mensch",
      "principal_note": null,
      "principal_role": "CEO",
      "rank": 8,
      "shipping": {
        "github": {
          "failed_repos": [],
          "incomplete": false,
          "is_floor": false,
          "per_repo": {
            "mistralai/client-python": 4,
            "mistralai/client-ts": 1,
            "mistralai/mistral-common": 1,
            "mistralai/mistral-inference": 0
          },
          "releases_30d": 6,
          "repos_answered": 4,
          "repos_total": 4,
          "state": "live",
          "truncated_repos": [],
          "unit": "releases/30d",
          "window_days": 30
        },
        "huggingface": {
          "authors": [
            "mistralai"
          ],
          "failed_authors": [],
          "incomplete": false,
          "is_floor": false,
          "models_30d": 2,
          "newest_at": "2026-10-08T11:37:05.000Z",
          "per_author": {
            "mistralai": {
              "is_floor": false,
              "models_30d": 2,
              "newest_at": "2026-10-08T11:37:05.000Z",
              "repos_returned": 77,
              "sample": [
                "mistralai/LIDstral-Arabic",
                "mistralai/Voxtral-Mini-4B-Realtime-Arabic"
              ]
            }
          },
          "state": "live",
          "unit": "model repos/30d",
          "window_days": 30
        },
        "openrouter": {
          "catalogue": 26,
          "caveat": "created is when OpenRouter listed the model, not when the vendor announced it.",
          "listed_30d": 1,
          "newest_listed_at": "2026-10-06T13:42:02.000Z",
          "prefixes": [
            "mistralai"
          ],
          "state": "live",
          "unit": "listings/30d",
          "window_days": 30
        }
      },
      "why": "0.3%, −44.3 points against Anthropic. 6 GitHub releases, 2 Hugging Face model repos, 1 OpenRouter listing in 30 days.",
      "why_components": [
        "Polymarket has no week-old reference for this leg.",
        "Kalshi's separate \"top-ranked this year\" contract has them at 3%.",
        "Named in 0.0% of the 800-item news window (±0.0 points across the window).",
        "6 GitHub releases, 2 Hugging Face model repos, 1 OpenRouter listing in 30 days."
      ]
    }
  ],
  "rank_basis": {
    "error": null,
    "event": {
      "end_date": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "legs_live": 15,
      "legs_total": 26,
      "slug": "which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026",
      "sum_of_live_legs": 1.0075,
      "title": "Which company has best AI model end of 2026?",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026",
      "volume_usd": 2519376
    },
    "field": "market.probability",
    "ok": true,
    "statement": "Players are ranked by the live Polymarket probability that they hold the best AI model at the furthest-out resolution date still trading. This is the market’s ranking, not SIREN’s. Nothing on this page is a SIREN forecast, and none of it feeds the SIREN index.",
    "venue": "polymarket"
  },
  "schema": 1,
  "ship_window_days": 30,
  "sources": [
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "github-releases",
      "label": "Per-lab GitHub release baskets",
      "ms": 4396,
      "ok": true,
      "state": "live"
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "huggingface",
      "label": "Per-lab Hugging Face model publication",
      "ms": 8137,
      "ok": true,
      "state": "live"
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "kalshi",
      "label": "Kalshi KXTOPAI cross-check",
      "ms": 312,
      "ok": true,
      "state": "live"
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "manifold",
      "label": "Manifold comparable-market probe",
      "ms": 385,
      "ok": true,
      "state": "live"
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "news-corpus",
      "label": "SIREN news corpus (data/news.json)",
      "ms": 0,
      "ok": true,
      "state": "live"
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "openrouter",
      "label": "OpenRouter catalogue listings",
      "ms": 362,
      "ok": true,
      "state": "live"
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "polymarket",
      "label": "Polymarket negRisk leaderboard",
      "ms": 988,
      "ok": true,
      "state": "live"
    },
    {
      "error": null,
      "id": "principal-feeds",
      "label": "Principal blog feeds",
      "ms": 563,
      "ok": true,
      "state": "live"
    }
  ]
}