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  ],
  "index": {
    "feeds_main_index": false,
    "name": "SUBSTRATE",
    "question": "How loaded is the physical substrate the models are being built on?"
  },
  "last_known": {
    "generated_at": "2026-10-15T05:24:56.914Z",
    "level": 4,
    "level_name": "STEADY",
    "level_since": "2026-09-24T03:20:33.302Z",
    "score": 50.4
  },
  "level": 4,
  "level_gloss": "Ordinary. This is where most observations sit.",
  "level_name": "STEADY",
  "level_since": "2026-09-24T03:20:33.302Z",
  "levels": [
    {
      "gloss": "The substrate is reading at the quiet end of its own record.",
      "level": 5,
      "max": 34,
      "min": 0,
      "name": "SLACK"
    },
    {
      "gloss": "Ordinary. This is where most observations sit.",
      "level": 4,
      "max": 54,
      "min": 35,
      "name": "STEADY"
    },
    {
      "gloss": "Above the middle of the record on more than one pillar.",
      "level": 3,
      "max": 69,
      "min": 55,
      "name": "LOADED"
    },
    {
      "gloss": "Near the top of what this index has observed.",
      "level": 2,
      "max": 84,
      "min": 70,
      "name": "STRAINED"
    },
    {
      "gloss": "At the top of the record. A statement about our sample, not about the world.",
      "level": 1,
      "max": 100,
      "min": 85,
      "name": "MAXIMAL"
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  ],
  "pillars": [
    {
      "blurb": "How much load never switches off, and how little slack is left over it.",
      "dark": false,
      "id": "grid",
      "name": "The grid",
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      "sources_dark": 0,
      "sources_live": 0,
      "sources_total": 4,
      "state": "awaiting-baseline"
    },
    {
      "blurb": "The state of the rivers and the ground the clusters were built beside.",
      "dark": false,
      "id": "water",
      "name": "The water",
      "score": 42.1,
      "sources_awaiting": 0,
      "sources_dark": 0,
      "sources_live": 2,
      "sources_total": 2,
      "state": "live"
    },
    {
      "blurb": "What companies had to write down, and what the government had to publish.",
      "dark": false,
      "id": "buildout",
      "name": "The build-out",
      "score": 54.9,
      "sources_awaiting": 2,
      "sources_dark": 0,
      "sources_live": 1,
      "sources_total": 3,
      "state": "live"
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  ],
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  "raw_level": 4,
  "rule_fired": "none",
  "schema": 1,
  "score": 50.4,
  "sources": [
    {
      "baseline_n": 21,
      "baseline_note": "21 of 30 points needed before this source can be scored",
      "baseline_origin": "accumulated",
      "baseline_source": null,
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      "cadence": "daily, settles at 06:00 Pacific",
      "direction": "higher = more load that never switches off",
      "error": null,
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      "label": "CAISO overnight floor",
      "meta": {
        "baseline_day": "2026-10-14",
        "blank_intervals": 1,
        "direction": "higher = more always-on load",
        "floor_at_local": "04:05 PT",
        "floor_local_naive_iso": "2026-10-14T04:05:00",
        "intervals_expected": 72,
        "intervals_used": 72,
        "local_day_derived": "2026-10-14",
        "source_note": "CAISO publishes the current Pacific day only and carries no offset in the file; the calendar day is derived from the run clock and observed_at is the run instant",
        "window_high_mw": 22946,
        "window_local": "00:00–06:00 PT",
        "window_range_mw": 2595
      },
      "ms": 437,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T05:24:57.367Z",
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "grid",
      "region": "CAISO · California",
      "score": null,
      "state": "awaiting-baseline",
      "unit": "MW",
      "unit_label": "MW",
      "value": 20351
    },
    {
      "baseline_n": 22,
      "baseline_note": "22 of 30 points needed before this source can be scored",
      "baseline_origin": "accumulated",
      "baseline_source": null,
      "baseline_span": null,
      "cadence": "daily, settles at 06:00 Central",
      "direction": "higher = more load that never switches off",
      "error": null,
      "id": "ercot-baseload",
      "label": "ERCOT overnight floor",
      "meta": {
        "days_available": [
          "2026-10-15",
          "2026-10-14"
        ],
        "direction": "higher = more always-on load",
        "feed_last_updated": "2026-10-15 00:21:00-0500",
        "floor_at_local": "2026-10-14 02:55:00-0500",
        "fuel_categories": 10,
        "intervals_expected": 72,
        "intervals_used": 72,
        "local_day": "2026-10-14",
        "source_note": "net generation summed across all fuel categories, five-minute resolution; Power Storage is negative while batteries charge and that sign is kept",
        "window_high_mw": 60320.5,
        "window_local": "00:00–06:00 CT",
        "window_range_mw": 7915.5
      },
      "ms": 681,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-14T07:55:00.000Z",
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "grid",
      "region": "ERCOT · Texas",
      "score": null,
      "state": "awaiting-baseline",
      "unit": "MW",
      "unit_label": "MW",
      "value": 52405
    },
    {
      "baseline_n": 22,
      "baseline_note": "22 of 30 points needed before this source can be scored",
      "baseline_origin": "accumulated",
      "baseline_source": null,
      "baseline_span": null,
      "cadence": "every 5 minutes",
      "direction": "higher = less slack between load and the committed fleet",
      "error": null,
      "id": "ercot-tightness",
      "label": "ERCOT headroom used",
      "meta": {
        "committed_capacity_mw": 76509,
        "demand_mw": 57992,
        "direction": "higher = tighter",
        "feed_last_updated": "2026-10-15 00:20:00-0500",
        "headroom_mw": 18517,
        "interval_local": "2026-10-15 00:20:00-0500",
        "intervals_dropped_forecast": 284,
        "intervals_in_feed": 289,
        "intervals_today": 5,
        "prc": {
          "current_mw": 7092,
          "day_low_at_local": "2026-10-15 00:06:05-0500",
          "day_low_mw": 6786,
          "eea_level": 0,
          "ercot_note": "There is enough power for current demand.",
          "ercot_state": "normal",
          "ercot_title": "Normal Conditions",
          "samples": 149
        },
        "source_note": "capacity is COMMITTED capacity, which follows expected load, so this ratio understates the swing in physical margin; PRC is enrichment and never scored; rows ERCOT flags as forecast, and any row stamped after the run clock, are dropped before the ratio and the day high and low are computed",
        "today_high_pct": 77.676,
        "today_low_pct": 75.798
      },
      "ms": 761,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T05:20:00.000Z",
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "grid",
      "region": "ERCOT · Texas",
      "score": null,
      "state": "awaiting-baseline",
      "unit": "percent",
      "unit_label": "% of committed capacity",
      "value": 75.798
    },
    {
      "baseline_n": 22,
      "baseline_note": "22 of 30 points needed before this source can be scored",
      "baseline_origin": "accumulated",
      "baseline_source": null,
      "baseline_span": null,
      "cadence": "daily, settles at 06:00 Eastern",
      "direction": "higher = more load that never switches off",
      "error": null,
      "id": "nyiso-baseload",
      "label": "NYISO overnight floor",
      "meta": {
        "attempts": [
          "20261015pal.csv: 15 complete intervals (need 66)"
        ],
        "blank_load_cells": 0,
        "direction": "higher = more always-on load",
        "floor_at_local": "10/14/2026 04:00:00",
        "intervals_dropped_incomplete": 0,
        "intervals_expected": 72,
        "intervals_used": 72,
        "local_day": "2026-10-14",
        "source_note": "statewide sum of all eleven NYISO load zones; a timestamp missing any zone is discarded rather than summed short",
        "time_zone": "EDT",
        "window_local": "00:00–06:00 ET",
        "zones": 11
      },
      "ms": 1132,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-14T08:00:00.000Z",
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "grid",
      "region": "NYISO · New York",
      "score": null,
      "state": "awaiting-baseline",
      "unit": "MW",
      "unit_label": "MW",
      "value": 13171.7
    },
    {
      "baseline_max": 41.852,
      "baseline_median": 19.049,
      "baseline_min": 1.539,
      "baseline_n": 260,
      "baseline_note": "5 years of weekly maps; the current week is excluded",
      "baseline_origin": "feed",
      "baseline_source": "the same ten-state mean recomputed for every earlier week in the window",
      "baseline_span": "2021-10-12 to 2026-09-29",
      "cadence": "weekly, published Thursdays",
      "direction": "higher = more of the build-out sitting in severe drought",
      "error": null,
      "id": "usdm-drought",
      "label": "Severe drought, ten cluster states",
      "meta": {
        "baseline_weeks": 260,
        "direction": "higher = drier",
        "driest": "OR",
        "driest_d2": 57.58,
        "map_date": "2026-10-06",
        "source_note": "US Drought Monitor, produced weekly by NDMC, USDA and NOAA; an expert assessment, not an instrument reading, and averaged here without area or population weighting",
        "states": [
          {
            "abbr": "OR",
            "cluster": "The Dalles, Hillsboro",
            "d0": 98.52,
            "d1": 88.3,
            "d2": 57.58,
            "d3": 20.23,
            "d4": 0,
            "name": "Oregon",
            "none": 1.48
          },
          {
            "abbr": "TX",
            "cluster": "Dallas, Austin, San Antonio",
            "d0": 95.74,
            "d1": 82,
            "d2": 52.44,
            "d3": 13.49,
            "d4": 1.06,
            "name": "Texas",
            "none": 4.26
          },
          {
            "abbr": "NE",
            "cluster": "Omaha, Papillion",
            "d0": 66.92,
            "d1": 44.29,
            "d2": 22.98,
            "d3": 6.43,
            "d4": 0.93,
            "name": "Nebraska",
            "none": 33.08
          },
          {
            "abbr": "AZ",
            "cluster": "Phoenix metro",
            "d0": 90.26,
            "d1": 53.97,
            "d2": 16.87,
            "d3": 0,
            "d4": 0,
            "name": "Arizona",
            "none": 9.74
          },
          {
            "abbr": "VA",
            "cluster": "Loudoun County",
            "d0": 57.59,
            "d1": 34.48,
            "d2": 14.71,
            "d3": 3.79,
            "d4": 0,
            "name": "Virginia",
            "none": 42.41
          },
          {
            "abbr": "GA",
            "cluster": "Atlanta metro",
            "d0": 84.12,
            "d1": 25.93,
            "d2": 9.77,
            "d3": 0,
            "d4": 0,
            "name": "Georgia",
            "none": 15.88
          },
          {
            "abbr": "OH",
            "cluster": "New Albany, Columbus",
            "d0": 3.81,
            "d1": 0,
            "d2": 0,
            "d3": 0,
            "d4": 0,
            "name": "Ohio",
            "none": 96.19
          },
          {
            "abbr": "IA",
            "cluster": "Council Bluffs, Des Moines",
            "d0": 1.36,
            "d1": 0,
            "d2": 0,
            "d3": 0,
            "d4": 0,
            "name": "Iowa",
            "none": 98.64
          },
          {
            "abbr": "NY",
            "cluster": "the NYISO control region",
            "d0": 32.38,
            "d1": 0,
            "d2": 0,
            "d3": 0,
            "d4": 0,
            "name": "New York",
            "none": 67.62
          },
          {
            "abbr": "CA",
            "cluster": "Santa Clara, the CAISO control region",
            "d0": 72.12,
            "d1": 23.26,
            "d2": 0,
            "d3": 0,
            "d4": 0,
            "name": "California",
            "none": 27.88
          }
        ],
        "states_clear_of_d2": [
          "OH",
          "IA",
          "NY",
          "CA"
        ],
        "states_total": 10,
        "threshold": "D2 — severe drought or worse; cumulative, so D2 includes D3 and D4",
        "valid_end": "2026-10-12T23:59:59",
        "valid_start": "2026-10-06T00:00:00",
        "weeks_complete": 261,
        "weeks_seen": 261
      },
      "ms": 1381,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-06T12:00:00.000Z",
      "percentile": 0.4063,
      "pillar": "water",
      "region": "ten states, weekly",
      "score": 47,
      "state": "live",
      "unit": "percent of area",
      "unit_label": "% of area in D2+",
      "value": 17.44,
      "z": -0.236949
    },
    {
      "baseline_max": 57.167,
      "baseline_median": 11.353,
      "baseline_min": -139.437,
      "baseline_n": 1094,
      "baseline_note": "3 years of USGS daily values; the current reading is excluded",
      "baseline_origin": "feed",
      "baseline_source": "the same nine-gauge median recomputed for every earlier day in the window",
      "baseline_span": "2023-10-15 to 2026-10-12",
      "cadence": "daily, one day in arrears",
      "direction": "higher = less water in the rivers these clusters draw on",
      "error": null,
      "id": "usgs-water-deficit",
      "label": "Streamflow below normal, nine clusters",
      "meta": {
        "aggregator": "median across gauges; the mean is reported but never scored",
        "baseline_days": 1094,
        "direction": "higher = drier",
        "driest": "Colorado Rv at Austin",
        "gauges": [
          {
            "cluster": "Austin–San Antonio",
            "deficit_pct": 50,
            "flow_cfs": 238,
            "name": "Colorado Rv at Austin",
            "normal_cfs": 476,
            "note": "central Texas build-out; ERCOT South",
            "percent_of_normal": 50,
            "record_years": "1899–2026",
            "site": "08158000",
            "state": "TX"
          },
          {
            "cluster": "Dallas–Fort Worth",
            "deficit_pct": -36.1,
            "flow_cfs": 528,
            "name": "Trinity Rv at Dallas",
            "normal_cfs": 388,
            "note": "ERCOT North; the densest Texas cluster",
            "percent_of_normal": 136.1,
            "record_years": "1914–2026",
            "site": "08057000",
            "state": "TX"
          },
          {
            "cluster": "Loudoun County",
            "deficit_pct": -1207.5,
            "flow_cfs": 523,
            "name": "Goose Creek near Leesburg",
            "normal_cfs": 40,
            "note": "Data Center Alley itself; a small local stream",
            "percent_of_normal": 1307.5,
            "record_years": "1910–2025",
            "site": "01644000",
            "state": "VA"
          },
          {
            "cluster": "Northern Virginia",
            "deficit_pct": -416.4,
            "flow_cfs": 12600,
            "name": "Potomac Rv at Little Falls",
            "normal_cfs": 2440,
            "note": "the regional supply gauge for the DC metro",
            "percent_of_normal": 516.4,
            "record_years": "1931–2026",
            "site": "01646500",
            "state": "MD"
          },
          {
            "cluster": "Central Ohio",
            "deficit_pct": -23.5,
            "flow_cfs": 205,
            "name": "Scioto Rv at Columbus",
            "normal_cfs": 166,
            "note": "New Albany and the Columbus corridor",
            "percent_of_normal": 123.5,
            "record_years": "1921–2026",
            "site": "03227500",
            "state": "OH"
          },
          {
            "cluster": "Atlanta metro",
            "deficit_pct": 18.9,
            "flow_cfs": 1200,
            "name": "Chattahoochee Rv near Norcross",
            "normal_cfs": 1480,
            "note": "metro Atlanta water supply",
            "percent_of_normal": 81.1,
            "record_years": "1957–2026",
            "site": "02335000",
            "state": "GA"
          },
          {
            "cluster": "Phoenix metro",
            "deficit_pct": 25.8,
            "flow_cfs": 6610,
            "name": "Colorado Rv at Lees Ferry",
            "normal_cfs": 8910,
            "note": "the accounting point for Lower Basin deliveries, which is how Central Arizona Project water reaches Phoenix; it is 300 miles upstream of the datacentres and is a supply gauge, not a local one",
            "percent_of_normal": 74.2,
            "record_years": "1922–2026",
            "site": "09380000",
            "state": "AZ"
          },
          {
            "cluster": "The Dalles",
            "deficit_pct": 18.7,
            "flow_cfs": 82100,
            "name": "Columbia Rv at The Dalles",
            "normal_cfs": 101000,
            "note": "the Oregon cluster sits on this river",
            "percent_of_normal": 81.3,
            "record_years": "1879–2025",
            "site": "14105700",
            "state": "OR"
          }
        ],
        "gauges_missing": [
          "06610000 Missouri Rv at Omaha"
        ],
        "gauges_reporting": 8,
        "gauges_total": 9,
        "lag_note": "USGS daily values settle the following morning, so this reads one day behind",
        "mean_deficit_pct": -196.25,
        "median_deficit_pct": -2.39,
        "no_data_points_dropped": 5,
        "reading_day": "2026-10-13",
        "source_note": "denominator is the USGS published median for that gauge on that day of the year, over the gauge’s full period of record; it is not computed by this project",
        "wettest": "Goose Creek near Leesburg"
      },
      "ms": 1429,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z",
      "percentile": 0.1538,
      "pillar": "water",
      "region": "nine gauges, seven states",
      "score": 37.2,
      "state": "live",
      "unit": "percent below normal",
      "unit_label": "% below normal, median of 9",
      "value": -2.39,
      "z": -1.020347
    },
    {
      "baseline_max": 258,
      "baseline_median": 126.5,
      "baseline_min": 95,
      "baseline_n": 234,
      "baseline_note": "windows overlap, so these points are strongly autocorrelated and the effective sample size is much smaller than the count",
      "baseline_origin": "feed",
      "baseline_source": "the same 180-day rolling count taken at weekly anchors across the fetched corpus",
      "baseline_span": "2022-04-16 to 2026-10-08",
      "cadence": "daily, on the federal publication calendar",
      "direction": "higher = more federal paperwork touching datacentres",
      "error": null,
      "id": "fedreg-datacenter",
      "label": "Federal Register documents saying \"data center\"",
      "meta": {
        "baseline_points": 234,
        "corpus_documents": 1494,
        "corpus_reported_count": 1494,
        "corpus_since": "2021-10-15",
        "direction": "higher = more federal documents mention datacentres",
        "pages_fetched": 2,
        "source_note": "the noisiest source in this index: \"data center\" also matches the National Climatic Data Center, federal facility consolidation notices and every agency building with the words in its name",
        "term": "data center",
        "window_days": 180,
        "window_end": "2026-10-15",
        "window_start": "2026-04-18"
      },
      "ms": 2322,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T05:24:56.939Z",
      "percentile": 0.6511,
      "pillar": "buildout",
      "region": "US federal government",
      "score": 54.9,
      "state": "live",
      "unit": "documents/180d",
      "unit_label": "documents / 180d",
      "value": 154,
      "z": 0.388227
    },
    {
      "baseline_n": 20,
      "baseline_note": "20 of 30 points needed before this source can be scored",
      "baseline_origin": "accumulated",
      "baseline_source": null,
      "baseline_span": null,
      "cadence": "continuous; EDGAR indexes on filing",
      "direction": "higher = more disclosed datacentre activity",
      "error": null,
      "id": "sec-datacenter",
      "label": "SEC filings saying \"data centers\"",
      "meta": {
        "direction": "higher = more filings mention datacentres",
        "enddt": "2026-10-15",
        "phrase": "data centers",
        "relation": "eq",
        "source_note": "efts.sec.gov full-text search; a count of matching filings, not of dollars, and it carries EDGAR’s own filing calendar — 10-K season lifts every phrase",
        "startdt": "2026-09-15",
        "window_days": 30
      },
      "ms": 1389,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T05:24:58.328Z",
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "buildout",
      "region": "US public companies",
      "score": null,
      "state": "awaiting-baseline",
      "unit": "filings/30d",
      "unit_label": "filings / 30d",
      "value": 1622
    },
    {
      "baseline_n": 20,
      "baseline_note": "20 of 30 points needed before this source can be scored",
      "baseline_origin": "accumulated",
      "baseline_source": null,
      "baseline_span": null,
      "cadence": "continuous; EDGAR indexes on filing",
      "direction": "higher = more bulk electricity being contracted for",
      "error": null,
      "id": "sec-power-contracts",
      "label": "SEC filings saying \"power purchase agreement\"",
      "meta": {
        "direction": "higher = more bulk power contracted",
        "enddt": "2026-10-15",
        "phrase": "power purchase agreement",
        "relation": "eq",
        "source_note": "efts.sec.gov full-text search; PPAs are signed by every heavy industry, and nothing in a phrase count separates a datacentre’s from a smelter’s",
        "startdt": "2026-07-17",
        "window_days": 90
      },
      "ms": 1474,
      "observed_at": "2026-10-15T05:24:58.414Z",
      "percentile": null,
      "pillar": "buildout",
      "region": "US public companies",
      "score": null,
      "state": "awaiting-baseline",
      "unit": "filings/90d",
      "unit_label": "filings / 90d",
      "value": 305
    }
  ],
  "thresholds": {
    "composite": "0.7 * mean(live pillars) + 0.3 * max(live pillars)",
    "deadband": 3,
    "min_baseline_n": 30,
    "min_hours_between_changes": 6,
    "normalisation": "empirical percentile -> inverse normal CDF -> 50 + 12.5z, clamped to [0,100]",
    "quorum": 2
  }
}