{
  "schema": 1,
  "open": [
    {
      "id": "2026-10-09-change-7d",
      "kind": "change-7d",
      "made_on": "2026-10-09",
      "made_at": "2026-10-09T00:14:18.182Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-16T00:14:18.182Z",
      "statement": "The level moves off 4 at least once in the next 7 days.",
      "p": 0.007,
      "basis": {
        "k": 0,
        "n": 151,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 55.5637
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-10-change-7d",
      "kind": "change-7d",
      "made_on": "2026-10-10",
      "made_at": "2026-10-10T00:13:43.659Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-17T00:13:43.659Z",
      "statement": "The level moves off 4 at least once in the next 7 days.",
      "p": 0.006,
      "basis": {
        "k": 0,
        "n": 156,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 56.2623
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-11-change-7d",
      "kind": "change-7d",
      "made_on": "2026-10-11",
      "made_at": "2026-10-11T00:12:15.752Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-18T00:12:15.752Z",
      "statement": "The level moves off 4 at least once in the next 7 days.",
      "p": 0.006,
      "basis": {
        "k": 0,
        "n": 175,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 54.0119
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-12-change-7d",
      "kind": "change-7d",
      "made_on": "2026-10-12",
      "made_at": "2026-10-12T00:14:26.403Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-19T00:14:26.403Z",
      "statement": "The level moves off 4 at least once in the next 7 days.",
      "p": 0.005,
      "basis": {
        "k": 0,
        "n": 210,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 50.5691
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-13-change-7d",
      "kind": "change-7d",
      "made_on": "2026-10-13",
      "made_at": "2026-10-13T00:15:34.189Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-20T00:15:34.189Z",
      "statement": "The level moves off 4 at least once in the next 7 days.",
      "p": 0.004,
      "basis": {
        "k": 0,
        "n": 236,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 48.8129
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-14-change-7d",
      "kind": "change-7d",
      "made_on": "2026-10-14",
      "made_at": "2026-10-14T00:23:01.594Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-21T00:23:01.594Z",
      "statement": "The level moves off 4 at least once in the next 7 days.",
      "p": 0.004,
      "basis": {
        "k": 0,
        "n": 260,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 46.3784
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-15-same-level-24h",
      "kind": "same-level-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-15",
      "made_at": "2026-10-15T03:34:40.898Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-16T03:34:40.898Z",
      "statement": "The level is still 4 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.998,
      "basis": {
        "k": 590,
        "n": 590,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 56.0826
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-15-higher-24h",
      "kind": "higher-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-15",
      "made_at": "2026-10-15T03:34:40.898Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-16T03:34:40.898Z",
      "statement": "The composite is above 56.1 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.4,
      "basis": {
        "k": 236,
        "n": 590,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 56.0826
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-15-change-7d",
      "kind": "change-7d",
      "made_on": "2026-10-15",
      "made_at": "2026-10-15T03:34:40.898Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-22T03:34:40.898Z",
      "statement": "The level moves off 4 at least once in the next 7 days.",
      "p": 0.003,
      "basis": {
        "k": 0,
        "n": 314,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 56.0826
      }
    }
  ],
  "resolved": [
    {
      "id": "2026-10-08-change-7d",
      "kind": "change-7d",
      "made_on": "2026-10-08",
      "made_at": "2026-10-08T00:31:43.367Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-15T00:31:43.367Z",
      "statement": "The level moves off 4 at least once in the next 7 days.",
      "p": 0.007,
      "basis": {
        "k": 0,
        "n": 142,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 48.1844
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-15T03:34:40.898Z",
      "hit": false,
      "seen": null,
      "brier": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-14-same-level-24h",
      "kind": "same-level-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-14",
      "made_at": "2026-10-14T00:23:01.594Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-15T00:23:01.594Z",
      "statement": "The level is still 4 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.998,
      "basis": {
        "k": 536,
        "n": 536,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 46.3784
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-15T03:34:40.898Z",
      "hit": true,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 56.0826
      },
      "brier": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-14-higher-24h",
      "kind": "higher-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-14",
      "made_at": "2026-10-14T00:23:01.594Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-15T00:23:01.594Z",
      "statement": "The composite is above 46.4 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.357,
      "basis": {
        "k": 191,
        "n": 536,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 46.3784
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-15T03:34:40.898Z",
      "hit": true,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 56.0826
      },
      "brier": 0.4134
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-07-change-7d",
      "kind": "change-7d",
      "made_on": "2026-10-07",
      "made_at": "2026-10-07T00:33:39.955Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-14T00:33:39.955Z",
      "statement": "The level moves off 4 at least once in the next 7 days.",
      "p": 0.008,
      "basis": {
        "k": 0,
        "n": 120,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 49.5437
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-14T00:45:05.722Z",
      "hit": false,
      "seen": null,
      "brier": 0.0001
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-13-higher-24h",
      "kind": "higher-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-13",
      "made_at": "2026-10-13T00:15:34.189Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-14T00:15:34.189Z",
      "statement": "The composite is above 48.8 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.379,
      "basis": {
        "k": 185,
        "n": 489,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 48.8129
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-14T00:23:01.594Z",
      "hit": false,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 46.3784
      },
      "brier": 0.1436
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-13-same-level-24h",
      "kind": "same-level-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-13",
      "made_at": "2026-10-13T00:15:34.189Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-14T00:15:34.189Z",
      "statement": "The level is still 4 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.998,
      "basis": {
        "k": 489,
        "n": 489,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 48.8129
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-14T00:23:01.594Z",
      "hit": true,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 46.3784
      },
      "brier": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-06-change-7d",
      "kind": "change-7d",
      "made_on": "2026-10-06",
      "made_at": "2026-10-06T00:33:43.984Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-13T00:33:43.984Z",
      "statement": "The level moves off 4 at least once in the next 7 days.",
      "p": 0.01,
      "basis": {
        "k": 0,
        "n": 96,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 47.585
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-13T00:37:50.765Z",
      "hit": false,
      "seen": null,
      "brier": 0.0001
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-12-higher-24h",
      "kind": "higher-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-12",
      "made_at": "2026-10-12T00:14:26.403Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-13T00:14:26.403Z",
      "statement": "The composite is above 50.6 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.414,
      "basis": {
        "k": 184,
        "n": 445,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 50.5691
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-13T00:15:34.189Z",
      "hit": false,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 48.8129
      },
      "brier": 0.1714
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-12-same-level-24h",
      "kind": "same-level-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-12",
      "made_at": "2026-10-12T00:14:26.403Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-13T00:14:26.403Z",
      "statement": "The level is still 4 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.998,
      "basis": {
        "k": 445,
        "n": 445,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 50.5691
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-13T00:15:34.189Z",
      "hit": true,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 48.8129
      },
      "brier": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-05-change-7d",
      "kind": "change-7d",
      "made_on": "2026-10-05",
      "made_at": "2026-10-05T00:32:03.322Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-12T00:32:03.322Z",
      "statement": "The level moves off 4 at least once in the next 7 days.",
      "p": 0.013,
      "basis": {
        "k": 0,
        "n": 74,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 39.8663
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-12T00:36:18.430Z",
      "hit": false,
      "seen": null,
      "brier": 0.0002
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-11-same-level-24h",
      "kind": "same-level-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-11",
      "made_at": "2026-10-11T00:12:15.752Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-12T00:12:15.752Z",
      "statement": "The level is still 4 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.997,
      "basis": {
        "k": 397,
        "n": 397,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 54.0119
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-12T00:14:26.403Z",
      "hit": true,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 50.5691
      },
      "brier": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-11-higher-24h",
      "kind": "higher-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-11",
      "made_at": "2026-10-11T00:12:15.752Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-12T00:12:15.752Z",
      "statement": "The composite is above 54.0 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.459,
      "basis": {
        "k": 182,
        "n": 397,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 54.0119
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-12T00:14:26.403Z",
      "hit": false,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 50.5691
      },
      "brier": 0.2107
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-04-change-7d",
      "kind": "change-7d",
      "made_on": "2026-10-04",
      "made_at": "2026-10-04T14:51:13.828Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-11T14:51:13.828Z",
      "statement": "The level moves off 4 at least once in the next 7 days.",
      "p": 0.015,
      "basis": {
        "k": 0,
        "n": 65,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 51.9959
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-11T15:14:29.745Z",
      "hit": false,
      "seen": null,
      "brier": 0.0002
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-10-higher-24h",
      "kind": "higher-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-10",
      "made_at": "2026-10-10T00:13:43.659Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-11T00:13:43.659Z",
      "statement": "The composite is above 56.3 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.512,
      "basis": {
        "k": 172,
        "n": 336,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 56.2623
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-11T00:33:37.535Z",
      "hit": false,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 53.9622
      },
      "brier": 0.2621
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-10-same-level-24h",
      "kind": "same-level-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-10",
      "made_at": "2026-10-10T00:13:43.659Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-11T00:13:43.659Z",
      "statement": "The level is still 4 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.997,
      "basis": {
        "k": 336,
        "n": 336,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 56.2623
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-11T00:33:37.535Z",
      "hit": true,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 53.9622
      },
      "brier": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-09-same-level-24h",
      "kind": "same-level-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-09",
      "made_at": "2026-10-09T00:14:18.182Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-10T00:14:18.182Z",
      "statement": "The level is still 4 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.997,
      "basis": {
        "k": 296,
        "n": 296,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 55.5637
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-10T00:34:52.330Z",
      "hit": true,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 56.2371
      },
      "brier": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-09-higher-24h",
      "kind": "higher-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-09",
      "made_at": "2026-10-09T00:14:18.182Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-10T00:14:18.182Z",
      "statement": "The composite is above 55.6 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.53,
      "basis": {
        "k": 157,
        "n": 296,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 55.5637
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-10T00:34:52.330Z",
      "hit": true,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 56.2371
      },
      "brier": 0.2209
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-08-higher-24h",
      "kind": "higher-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-08",
      "made_at": "2026-10-08T00:31:43.367Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-09T00:31:43.367Z",
      "statement": "The composite is above 48.2 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.477,
      "basis": {
        "k": 124,
        "n": 260,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 48.1844
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-09T00:36:40.719Z",
      "hit": true,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 55.3557
      },
      "brier": 0.2735
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-08-same-level-24h",
      "kind": "same-level-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-08",
      "made_at": "2026-10-08T00:31:43.367Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-09T00:31:43.367Z",
      "statement": "The level is still 4 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.996,
      "basis": {
        "k": 260,
        "n": 260,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 48.1844
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-09T00:36:40.719Z",
      "hit": true,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 55.3557
      },
      "brier": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-07-same-level-24h",
      "kind": "same-level-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-07",
      "made_at": "2026-10-07T00:33:39.955Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-08T00:33:39.955Z",
      "statement": "The level is still 4 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.996,
      "basis": {
        "k": 236,
        "n": 236,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 49.5437
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-08T00:39:37.366Z",
      "hit": true,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 48.0241
      },
      "brier": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-07-higher-24h",
      "kind": "higher-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-07",
      "made_at": "2026-10-07T00:33:39.955Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-08T00:33:39.955Z",
      "statement": "The composite is above 49.5 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.437,
      "basis": {
        "k": 103,
        "n": 236,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 49.5437
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-08T00:39:37.366Z",
      "hit": false,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 48.0241
      },
      "brier": 0.191
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-06-higher-24h",
      "kind": "higher-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-06",
      "made_at": "2026-10-06T00:33:43.984Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-07T00:33:43.984Z",
      "statement": "The composite is above 47.6 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.413,
      "basis": {
        "k": 87,
        "n": 211,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 47.585
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-07T00:34:32.042Z",
      "hit": true,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 49.5075
      },
      "brier": 0.3446
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-06-same-level-24h",
      "kind": "same-level-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-06",
      "made_at": "2026-10-06T00:33:43.984Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-07T00:33:43.984Z",
      "statement": "The level is still 4 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.995,
      "basis": {
        "k": 211,
        "n": 211,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 47.585
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-07T00:34:32.042Z",
      "hit": true,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 49.5075
      },
      "brier": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-05-same-level-24h",
      "kind": "same-level-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-05",
      "made_at": "2026-10-05T00:32:03.322Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-06T00:32:03.322Z",
      "statement": "The level is still 4 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.994,
      "basis": {
        "k": 175,
        "n": 175,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 39.8663
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-06T00:33:43.984Z",
      "hit": true,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 47.585
      },
      "brier": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-05-higher-24h",
      "kind": "higher-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-05",
      "made_at": "2026-10-05T00:32:03.322Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-06T00:32:03.322Z",
      "statement": "The composite is above 39.9 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.486,
      "basis": {
        "k": 85,
        "n": 175,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 39.8663
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-06T00:33:43.984Z",
      "hit": true,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 47.585
      },
      "brier": 0.2642
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-04-same-level-24h",
      "kind": "same-level-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-04",
      "made_at": "2026-10-04T14:51:13.828Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-05T14:51:13.828Z",
      "statement": "The level is still 4 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.994,
      "basis": {
        "k": 157,
        "n": 157,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 51.9959
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-05T15:27:09.849Z",
      "hit": true,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 49.8713
      },
      "brier": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-04-higher-24h",
      "kind": "higher-24h",
      "made_on": "2026-10-04",
      "made_at": "2026-10-04T14:51:13.828Z",
      "due_at": "2026-10-05T14:51:13.828Z",
      "statement": "The composite is above 52.0 at the first reading 24 hours on.",
      "p": 0.541,
      "basis": {
        "k": 85,
        "n": 157,
        "method": "base rate over the index history, Laplace-smoothed"
      },
      "ref": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 51.9959
      },
      "resolved_at": "2026-10-05T15:27:09.849Z",
      "hit": false,
      "seen": {
        "level": 4,
        "score": 49.8713
      },
      "brier": 0.2927
    }
  ],
  "generated_at": "2026-10-15T05:21:57.534Z",
  "summary": {
    "resolved": 27,
    "hits": 16,
    "mean_brier": 0.1033,
    "coin_flip_brier": 0.25
  }
}